Market Review
Last week (05.16-05.20), the CSI 300 index rose 2.23%. According to the statistics of the key weight companies selected by us (listed in the market of 1.1 sector in detail), the beauty care industry portfolio rose 4.57%, of which the medical beauty / cosmetics / personal care products rose 7.39% / 3.77% / 2.57% respectively.
Since the beginning of the year, the CSI 300 index has fallen by 17.46%. According to the statistics of the key weight companies in the sector selected by us (listed in the market of 1.1 sector in detail), the beauty care industry portfolio has fallen by 24.34%, of which the medical beauty / cosmetics / personal care products have fallen by 23.92% / 23.49% / 25.61% respectively.
In terms of valuation, as of May 20, the price earnings ratio (TTM) of beauty care (801980. SI) was about 40.26x, which was at the quantile value of 6.80% in two years.
Core view
Affected by the recent outbreak of epidemic in many places and the continuous deterioration of employment, the retail sales of cosmetics and daily necessities continued to decline in April. From January to April 2022, the cumulative value of cosmetics retail sales was 116.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; The cumulative value of retail sales of daily necessities was 232.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. From the value of that month, the retail sales of cosmetics in April 2022 was about 21.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.3%; Retail sales of daily necessities reached 49.53 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year.
In terms of categories, the sales of most categories showed a significant downward trend, and only the two categories of washing and cleaning agents / sanitary napkins / paper / aromatherapy and hair care / wigs increased slightly. In April 2022, the online sales of beauty and skin care / body beauty / essential oil totaled 8.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13%; The online sales of washing and cleaning agents / sanitary napkins / paper / aromatherapy totaled 6.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%; Online sales of cosmetics / perfume / beauty tools totaled 2.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35%; The online sales of household / personal cleaning tools totaled 1.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14%; Online sales of hair care / wigs reached 1.235 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%.
Since the beginning of the year, the epidemic situation in many places has repeatedly affected terminal consumption. With the gradual unsealing of shutdown areas in South China and East China, the overall economy and industry can recover steadily. We believe that the medium and long-term growth trend of medical beauty and cosmetics remains unchanged. Under the background of the epidemic, the Matthew effect of the industry is strengthened. Under the survival of the fittest, the leading enterprises can further expand their market share by relying on the advantages of brand, channel, supply chain and capital. We continue to be optimistic about Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) which is the leader of injection light medical and American medicine and equipment and Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , which is a leading domestic anti allergy skin care product. Relevant targets include Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , etc.
Key industry trends
The number of beauty financing plummeted; Taobao updates the management norms of cosmetics industry; The trend of the rise of domestic beauty products in Tiktok e-commerce platform is obvious, etc.
Announcement of key companies
Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) shareholders’ investment in Chonglou reduced their holdings by about 2.59 million shares; The net loss attributable to shareholders of Yimei international in fiscal year 2021 was 587 million yuan, an increase of 149.12% year-on-year; Jinbo biology released the first quarter financial report of 2022; Huabao international adopts the share award plan; The dividend of the epidemic subsided, 300.88 752 billion cross-border injection Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.Ltd(605136) shareholder crescent Lily plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 2%, and the other shareholder lixiu will reduce its holdings by 1%, with a reduction time of more than half; Peninsula Medical “radiofrequency therapeutic instrument liti” was approved by nmpa for listing C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) “revealing the bottom” commitment has been included in the commitment management, and the household paper business is still in the state of sales exceeding production Aoyuan Beauty Valley Technology Co.Ltd(000615) received the inquiry letter, involving 9 questions such as financial data and business activities Aoyuan Beauty Valley Technology Co.Ltd(000615) release the latest progress of external related party guarantee Qingdao Kingking Applied Chemistry Co.Ltd(002094) elect Chen Suobin as chairman; Heng’an international elected Chen Chuang as an independent non-executive director.
Risk tips
Risk of changes in industrial policies; The terminal demand is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies risks.
