\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 056 Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) )
The performance has maintained stable growth, and photovoltaic has become the largest business
From 2019 to 2021, the growth rate of the company's operating revenue was 1.16%, 23.50% and 55.54% respectively, and the growth rate of net profit was 0.31%, 46.67% and 10.54% respectively. The overall growth trend remained year by year. In 2021, the revenue of photovoltaic business was 6.499 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 87.41%, accounting for 51.55% of the total revenue. The proportion of photovoltaic business has further increased after surpassing the magnetic material business as the largest business in 2020.
Photovoltaic business has been distributed in Europe for many years and enjoys high growth dividends of the industry
The company's PV module shipments accounted for 70% in Europe, enjoying the dividends brought by the super industry growth in the European market. The company's photovoltaic business has been in Europe for more than ten years. In 2021, 2.4gw modules were shipped, of which 70% were exported to the European market.
In the first quarter of 2022, China's export of photovoltaic modules reached 37.2gw, a year-on-year increase of 112%. Among them, the export of European components reached 16.7gw, a year-on-year increase of 145%, and European demand exploded rapidly. The demand for energy transformation in the EU region is urgent. The growth of photovoltaic demand exceeds the global average growth rate, and the company will continue to benefit.
The company's black component products have certain product differentiation advantages in Europe, can match the consistency of building roof tone in central and Northern Europe, and become a popular product. The company's black component shipments accounted for 30% of the total, and the company's components as a whole maintained a certain premium.
Lithium battery aims at small power battery and has a broad market space
In 2021, the company shipped 136 million lithium batteries, with a year-on-year increase of 62.75%. In 2022, a new 6Gw lithium battery project will be built, and the production capacity will expand rapidly. The company's lithium batteries are mainly used in electric two wheeled vehicles, electric tools and portable energy storage. According to the prediction of Gaogong lithium battery, China's electric two wheeled vehicle and the global electric tool market have a market space of 2-fold and 1.7-fold growth in five years respectively. The CAGR of portable energy storage market has reached 148% in the past five years. With the increasing popularity of mobile electronic devices such as mobile phones and tablets, there is still much room for development.
The magnetic material business consolidated its leading position and grew steadily
Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) produced 175700 tons of magnetic materials in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 24%, of which the output of permanent magnet accounts for 17% and the output of soft magnet accounts for 10% of the country. It is a leading enterprise of ferrite magnetic materials in China. In January this year, the company successively announced to invest in the construction of 15000 tons of soft ferrite, 22000 tons of permanent ferrite and 5.12 billion integrated inductors, and the capacity of magnetic materials + extension devices will continue to increase. Permanent magnet ferrite is mainly used in downstream industries such as automobile and household appliances. The improvement of automobile intelligence increases the unit consumption of ferrite, while the white appliance industry maintains a low growth rate, and the permanent magnet ferrite market maintains a certain growth rate. In terms of soft magnetism, mobile phones and automotive wireless bring new growth points to the industry.
Profit forecast
It is predicted that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 18.41 billion yuan, 24.05 billion yuan and 30.66 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.412 billion yuan, 1.764 billion yuan and 2.170 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.87, 1.08 and 1.33 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 26.2, 21.0 and 17.1 times respectively, giving the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
The demand of magnetic material business is less than expected; PV export profit continues to be affected by freight; Lithium battery business demand is less than expected; The production capacity of photovoltaic and lithium battery is lower than expected
