\u3000\u30003 Anhui Coreach Technology Co.Ltd(002983) 00298)
Blood glucose testing leading enterprises have developed steadily and have obvious layout advantages. The company was founded in 2002 and focused on the layout of the chronic disease detection service track. In 2020, the company issued convertible bonds to raise a total net fund of 490 million yuan for ipoct (intelligent real-time detection) product capacity expansion project, CGMS (continuous blood glucose monitoring system) capacity construction project and partial flow supplement project. In 2021, the company's operating revenue was 2.361 billion yuan (+ 17%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 108 million yuan (- 42%), of which the bad debt provision for Cuban accounts receivable was withdrawn in full at one time, affecting the company's net profit of about 64.39 million yuan; In 2022, the Q1 operating revenue was 620 million yuan (+ 23%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 65 million yuan (+ 57%).
Years of intensive cultivation of blood glucose monitoring, R & D strength to help the company's long-term development. With the promotion of national policies and the improvement of residents' awareness, the market scale of blood glucose monitoring is expected to continue to expand. The company has been engaged in multi-channel operation for many years. With high cost performance and product quality, it has quickly occupied the Chinese market. Surrounded by foreign brands such as Johnson & Johnson, Roche and Abbott, the market share exceeds 36%; In addition, the company's acquisition of trivia further enables it to open up overseas markets and help the rapid and large-scale blood glucose business. In 2021, the operating revenue of blood glucose monitoring system was 1.837 billion yuan (+ 21%), and the gross profit margin was 65.73%, driving the steady growth of the company's performance. In addition, the company's continuous blood glucose monitoring (CGMS) has been approved for clinical use, and has begun to layout the CGMS production capacity construction, which is expected to link up with the product listing and further enhance the company's blood glucose monitoring strength.
Graded diagnosis and treatment is good for POCT products. The company has a complete category structure and can expect growth. In 2016, the company acquired PTS and entered the POCT field, which was consolidated in 2017. Since then, it has established a POCT product system with multiple indicators and different application scenarios around chronic diseases such as diabetes. In 2021, PTS revenue was 706million yuan, and is expected to contribute profits from this year; In addition, the company stepped up preparations for the construction of new ipoct production capacity to promote the further growth of the sector.
Investment advice
The company is a leading enterprise in blood glucose detection. With the further improvement of industry penetration, the company's full range of products are expected to continue to increase in volume. It is estimated that the operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.77 billion yuan, 3.24 billion yuan and 3.72 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 17%, 17% and 15% respectively; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 340 million yuan, 400 million yuan and 460 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 211%, 18% and 17% respectively. We use the relative valuation method (P / E ratio method) to value the company. With reference to the situation of Listed Companies in the same industry, we give the company 36 times PE in 2022, the target price is 21 yuan, and give the company a "buy" rating for the first time. risk
The risk that the clinical progress of CGM is less than expected, the volume of ipoct is less than expected, the risk of policy, the risk of intensified industry competition, the risk that the operation and integration of overseas subsidiaries are less than expected, and the risk of impairment of goodwill and overseas assets.
