\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 612 Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) )
Event: on May 16, the company announced the acquisition of 94.98% equity of Xinyuan shares by fixed increase. After the completion of this transaction, Xinyuan shares will become the holding subsidiary of Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) .
Comments:
The acquisition of Xinyuan will open up the two wings of the carbon industry chain horizontally and take shape. As the leader of prebaked anode in China, sotong has been committed to building a C + (carbon) strategy and a development model with “prebaked anode + lithium cathode” as its two wings. At present, the first cost of lithium battery cathode material is graphitization, the second cost is petroleum coke, and the first cost of graphitization is electricity, so the key to cost reduction lies in petroleum coke. The raw materials of prebaked anode and lithium battery cathode are petroleum coke. Sotong purchased 3 million tons of petroleum coke in 2021 and more than 5.5 million tons in the future, accounting for 1 / 4 of the output of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) coke. It has the cost advantage of centralized procurement. The acquisition of Xinyuan shares has opened up petroleum coke → lithium battery cathode horizontally, and the synergy advantage of carbon industry chain is significant.
The graphite negative electrode business of Xinyuan shares has developed rapidly. Xinyuan Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in graphite negative electrode and film capacitor. Its inner Mongolia Xinyuan is mainly responsible for the R & D, production and sales of graphite negative electrode materials. In 2021, the revenue of Xinyuan Co., Ltd. was 515 million yuan, of which the revenue of graphite negative electrode was 259 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 56.92%. The gross profit margin of graphite negative electrode was 40.40%, with a year-on-year increase of 18.46 PCT. Xinyuan’s customers cover beiteri, Shandong Keyu and Ningbo Shanshan, accounting for 19.59%, 11.29% and 9.75% respectively. The product has high market recognition.
The 200000 ton lithium ion battery cathode material integration project opens up the growth space of the company. In April 2022, the company plans to invest 720 million yuan to build a 200000 ton / year lithium-ion battery cathode material integration project in Jiayuguan City, Gansu Province, of which the first phase is 50000 tons. The whole project is expected to be put into operation in 2023. According to the data of Gaogong lithium battery, the shipment of negative electrode materials in China reached 720000 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 97%, and the compound growth rate of negative electrode materials from 2016 to 2021 was 43.58%. The company’s recent expansion of production + acquisition of Xinyuan has strong action force, and is expected to fully benefit from the wave of rapid development of new energy batteries and open the ceiling of future growth.
The production of prebaked anode will be steadily expanded, with 5 million tons planned in 2025. At present, China’s electrolytic aluminum expansion project is accelerating the release, with an operating capacity of 40.3 million tons in April, and there is a strong demand for prebaked anodes. In 2021, the production capacity of sotong prebaked anode will be 2.52 million tons, including 590000 tons in Jiayuguan, 570000 tons in Dezhou, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons in Yunnan, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons in Binzhou and 160000 tons in Chongqing. In 2022, 350000 tons will continue to be built in Sichuan and 300000 tons will be expanded in Yunnan. At that time, the total capacity is expected to reach 3.17 million tons. In 2021, the company’s profit per ton of prebaked anode was 729 yuan, which was much higher than that of peers, and the profit advantage was obvious. The company’s planned production capacity in the 14th five year plan reached 5 million tons, with an annual increment of about Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons. The expansion of production ensured the performance growth and stable cash flow.
Investment suggestion: the company has steadily expanded the production of prebaked anode, and the growth of graphite anode can be expected. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 831 / 1147 / 1506 million yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 1.81 / 2.49 / 3.27 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 11.6 / 8.4 / 6.4 times. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the expansion of production is less than expected, and the demand for new energy is less than expected.
