\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 155 Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) )
Event:
The company issued a major asset purchase report (Draft), and the underlying asset was 51% equity of Ningde Dongheng machinery, with a transaction amount of 816 million yuan. The revenue / net profit of the target company in 2021 was 904 million yuan / 142 million yuan respectively.
Acquire Ningde Dongheng machinery, cut into the structural parts of lithium battery module, and make a major breakthrough in the layout of new products
Dongheng machinery is mainly engaged in lithium battery precision structural parts, which are widely used in the shell structure of power battery modules, such as side sectors and end sectors. In 2021, it accounted for 93% of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) revenue, and is a key supplier of power battery shell structural parts for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) a key international customer. The company’s products ultimately serve Tesla, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Volkswagen and other well-known automobile brands. Ningde Dongheng has been certified as “excellent supplier of catl” and “catl production contribution award” for many times. After the M & A is completed, the two sides can produce synergy in customer development, resource maintenance, internal production efficiency improvement and other aspects, which is conducive to further expand the product line and expand new business growth points.
The former major shareholder of the target company promised that the net profit in 2022, 2023 and 2024 would not be less than 150, 160 and 170 million yuan respectively. If the target company completes 30% of the excess amount of net profit during the commitment period, the performance reward shall be accrued, and shall not be higher than 20% of the consideration amount of this transaction.
The grant of the equity incentive plan is completed, demonstrating the confidence of the management; The current share price is 19% lower than the grant price
In 2022, the equity incentive plan granted a total of 1 million restricted shares at a price of 108 yuan (the current stock price is 87 yuan), with a total of 148 directors, senior executives and business backbones of the target company.
New energy vehicle model group / pack equipment leader, five factors driving performance acceleration
The five factors are: 1) the growth of new energy vehicles; 2) Improve the automation rate of equipment; 3) Domestic substitution; 4) Globalization; 5) Breakthroughs in new products and new fields.
It is estimated that China’s module / pack line market will reach 11.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 19% from 2021 to 2025. Driving forces for growth: 1) the demand for lithium battery equipment continues to grow; 2) The automation rate of module / pack is improved. From domestic substitution to global supply. 1) The company’s market share in China will be about 25% in 2020, and there is still room for further improvement. 2) New energy vehicles in Europe and the United States are growing rapidly. It is estimated that the market scale of European / American module / pack line will reach 8.3 billion yuan / 5.3 billion yuan respectively in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will reach 20% / 67%.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 270 / 46 / 630 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 281% / 73% / 36% respectively; The corresponding PE from 2022 to 2024 is 24 / 14 / 10 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
The industry competition intensifies, the expansion of new products is less than expected, and the progress of asset restructuring is less than expected.
