\u3000\u30006 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) 00059)
As a typical representative of Oriental brewing, the industry concentration has increased steadily. Yellow rice wine is one of the three ancient wines in the world. Because of its low degree and high nutrition, it has the functions of drinking, medicine and cooking. From 2016 to 2021, the operating revenue of Chinese rice wine enterprises above designated size decreased from 19.82 billion yuan to 12.72 billion yuan, with a CAGR of - 8.5% during the period, showing an overall downward trend; The total profit decreased from 1.86 billion yuan to 1.67 billion yuan, with a CAGR of - 2.1% during the period. Influenced by traditional habits, the production and consumption of rice wine are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, and there is also a certain foundation in Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, southwest and northeast. At present, the consumption of yellow rice wine still needs further guidance and cultivation to improve the total market. In 2021, the revenue of listed rice wine enterprises increased by 8.9pct to 27.3% compared with 2016, and the total profit increased by 10.4pct to 28.2% compared with 2016.
The company has been in a leading position in the industry for many years, and the optimization of product structure before the epidemic has been effective. The main brands of the company are Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) , daughter red, champion Red, Shen Yonghe, Jianhu brand, etc. From 2016 to 2019, the company's product structure was continuously optimized. The revenue increased from 1.54 billion yuan to 1.76 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent increased from 120 million yuan to 210 million yuan, the proportion of medium and high-grade wine sales increased by 5.2pct to 43.7%, the proportion of revenue increased by 5.6pct to 69.5%, and the overall gross profit margin of the company increased by 6.2pct to 42.3%. Since 2020, the company has been subject to the impact of the epidemic, and its revenue performance has both declined. In 2021, the company insisted on streamlining its products and improving its structure. The revenue of medium and high-grade products and ordinary products has recovered to 91.1% and 78.4% respectively in 2019. The volume and price of medium and high-grade products have rebounded faster than that of ordinary yellow rice wine.
Lay the foundation for original wine reserve and help long-term high-quality development. High quality original wine is the basis for the production of medium and high-end yellow rice wine, but the aging of the original wine takes a long time. Therefore, the original yellow rice wine is scarce, which is also the basis for the promotion of the value of the yellow rice wine industry. The company has the largest yellow rice wine brewing base, the largest yellow rice wine warehouse and the largest yellow rice wine museum in China. The existing original wine of aged yellow rice wine has reached 288000 tons. As the brewing output of yellow rice wine is close to the upper limit of 140000 tons in recent years, the company actively promotes the construction of "yellow rice wine Industrial Park (phase I) project", expands the brewing capacity, improves the production technology and equipment and automation control level, and contributes to the quality upgrading, cost reduction and efficiency increase in the future.
Break through regional and pricing restrictions and shoulder the important task of rejuvenating yellow rice wine. On the product side, create high-quality yellow rice wine, develop three high-end series of "national brewing 1959", "good wine does not go to the head" and "blue and white drunk", and strengthen the design and promotion of gift wine, custom wine and memorial wine with the help of various large-scale activities. On the channel side, the company solidly promoted digital reform, practiced the win-win concept of manufacturers, further improved the strength of the sales team, accelerated the frequency of dynamic sales in mature markets in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, and strengthened the cultivation of peripheral markets such as the north. On the brand side, the company has successfully become a designated rice wine supplier for the China Pavilion of the Dubai World Expo and the 19th Asian Games, and strengthened the promotion of high-end people and business people. In the current era of the prevalence of domestic culture, we should expand the experience of new products, attract consumers' attention and recognition of rice wine culture with national fashion classics, and promote the brand rejuvenation and upgrading with the help of new retail models such as "Internet +".
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. We expect the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 1.62/18.3/2.12 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 2.2/2.7/340 billion respectively. The predicted value of BVPs in 2022 is 6.0 yuan, and the average value of Pb of comparable companies in 2022 is 5 times. Considering that the company's performance is greatly disturbed by the epidemic in the short term and the category value of yellow rice wine is still seriously underestimated, 6 Zhongfu Straits (Pingtan) Development Company Limited(000592) 022 is given 2.5 times PB, the corresponding target price is 15 yuan, and the rating of "better than the big market" is given for the first coverage.
Risk tip: the industry competition intensifies, the epidemic affects the demand, and the cost control risk
