\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 518() Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518)
"Laser + workbench + complete set of automation equipment" goes hand in hand, showing competitive advantages in various fields
Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) is a comprehensive solution provider of laser and automation equipment. It is mainly engaged in the R & D, design, production and sales of lasers, laser welding machines, worktables and complete sets of laser welding automation equipment widely used in power batteries, automobile manufacturing, hardware and household appliances, consumer electronics, optical communication and other manufacturing fields.
The company's performance continued to grow, with revenue increasing from 416 million yuan in 2016 to 1.4 billion yuan in 2021, and revenue of 371 million yuan in 2022q1, with an average annual compound growth rate of 22.42% from 2016 to 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 69 million yuan in 2016 to 92 million yuan in 2021, 15 million yuan in 2022q1, and the compound annual growth rate from 2016 to 2021 was 4.91%.
Laser and power battery: the revenue mainly comes from the field of power battery, with strong demand in the downstream market
1) automobile enterprises jointly start the tide of electrification development, and the demand for lithium battery is expected to reach more than 800gwh by 2025. According to the electric vehicle planning of Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, Toyota, Hyundai and other enterprises, we predict that the global demand for electric vehicles will reach 15.68 million by 2025, with a penetration of 17% in the automobile market that year. The huge demand for electric vehicles is expected to drive the total demand for lithium batteries close to 820gwh, of which the demand for pure electric vehicles is about 760gwh and the demand for hybrid vehicles is about 57gwh.
2) the power battery market is vast, and there is still a large gap in production capacity. The demand for power lithium batteries is not only driven by electric vehicles, but also driven by construction machinery + electric tools + energy storage + two wheeled vehicles. We expect the overall demand for power lithium batteries to reach 1114gwh by 2025. After counting the capacity of the top 17 battery plants in the world, we calculate that under the pessimistic / neutral / optimistic situation, the capacity gap of power battery at the end of 2023 is 376 / 498 / 1013gwh. According to the demand gap of power battery, we calculate that under the pessimistic and neutral conditions, the scale of lithium battery equipment is expected to reach 61.583 billion yuan and 79.951 billion yuan respectively in 2024.
Core competitiveness: R & D helps new energy and develops and applies new tracks. 1) the company's products are constantly upgraded and iterated according to the needs of downstream customers. 2) The company covers downstream leading customers and keeps abreast of the latest developments in the industry. 3) Keep up with the trend of new energy vehicles, focus on laser and automation, and lead the industry in complete sets of laser welding equipment. 4) Provide customers with comprehensive services of laser and automation equipment rather than a single product, and provide customized and personalized services according to customer needs. 5) Actively introduce industry talents and increase R & D expenditure.
Profit forecast: we have selected the listed target of China's leading laser technology attribute power battery as the valuation reference. The net profit attributable to the parent company of Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) 2022e / 2023e / 2024e is RMB 383 / 547 / 701 million respectively, and the current market value corresponding to PE is 21.55/15.09/11.77x respectively. We think there is still some room for improvement in the company's valuation. Therefore, we choose the average value of 32.08x in 2022 as the target valuation. The target market value is RMB 12.277 billion and the target price is RMB 41.06, Compared with the current market value, it has upward space, covering and giving a buy rating for the first time.
Risk tips: iterative risk of technology and product upgrading, relatively concentrated risk of downstream application industries, increased market competition, continuous risk of covid-19 epidemic and financial risk
