\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 466 Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) )
Event overview
On May 22, the general office of the CPC Central Committee and the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the implementation of the national cultural digitization strategy (hereinafter referred to as the opinions), which clearly stated that by the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period, the cultural digitization infrastructure and service platform will be basically completed, forming a Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integrated, interactive and three-dimensional cultural service supply system. By 2035, a national cultural big data system with physical distribution, logical correlation, fast link, efficient search, comprehensive sharing and key integration will be built, the panorama of Chinese culture will be presented, and the digital achievements of Chinese culture will be shared by the whole people.
Analysis and judgment
Under cultural self-confidence, the influence scope of Chinese cultural soft power has gradually expanded. The weekly report "the influence of cultural soft power has been gradually expanded, and attention has been paid to the changes of simultaneous release on the North American cinema network" released on May 15 indicates that the game going to sea has formed a large-scale trend. The success of Tiktok and Yuanshen in the world shows that the influence of Chinese cultural soft power has been enhanced, and the reverse output of culture has begun to form a trend, which is expected to become the focus of development after the hard power. The opinions released this time focuses on the "panoramic presentation of Chinese culture", and further clarify the positioning of cultural self-confidence and soft power in the face of policy. According to the opinions, the future cultural construction will focus on the layout of cultural infrastructure and cultural service platform. We believe that important landing scenes of cultural infrastructure include urban museums, museums, art galleries and other cultural theme museums; The landing scenes of cultural service platform include cultural database, cultural special network and cultural consumption scenes including cultural ipnft.
Cultural infrastructure and related derivative services benefit from the opinions, and the company directly benefits as a relevant leader. We believe that the fifth point in the opinions (developing new scenes of digital cultural consumption, vigorously developing new digital cultural experience of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integration and online presence) and the seventh point (accelerating the digital layout of cultural industry, cultivating a number of new cultural enterprises in the fields of cultural data collection, processing, trading, distribution and presentation, and leading the digital construction direction of cultural industry) are directly related to the company's business. Fifth, the main landing scene is the g-end cultural meta universe project, of which the museum may benefit the most. According to the digital arts network, on March 26, 60 curators and scholars from 50 museums and universities across the country jointly issued the "proposal on Museums actively participating in the construction of the meta universe", calling on museums to actively participate in the construction of the meta universe; Seventh, the main landing scene is the NFT release of relevant cultural IP, including the cultural IP of the exhibition hall and the local cultural IP. The company has rich g-end resources and is trying to operate the back-end of the meta universe project. It is expected that the demand for the issuance of NFT related to cultural IP will be significantly increased.
The State supports new cultural infrastructure, and the company is a beneficiary share of resumption of work and production. The "epidemic affects the rhythm of revenue recognition and is expected to be low in the front and high in the back of the annual performance pattern" released by us on April 28 indicates that the epidemic only affects the rhythm of the company's performance recognition, and the project revenue that should be recognized after the resumption of work and production is expected to be released in a centralized manner. At the same time, benefiting from the increased demand for new cultural infrastructure promoted by the opinions, we expect the performance in the second half of the year to be highly flexible. The market is worried about the lack of financial support for g-end projects. We believe that: (1) cultural infrastructure is different from the traditional new infrastructure, in line with the policy guidance, and will receive the key support of the government itself; (2) The state promotes the use of special bonds, and the capital side is expected to be relatively abundant. According to caixin.com's "how to understand and comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction", the issuance and use progress of special bonds are required to be advanced: the special bonds issued in 2021 shall be appropriated and used before the end of May 2022 in principle; In principle, the 2022 special bonds issued in advance in December 2021 shall be appropriated and used before the end of September 2022; The amount of the second batch of special bonds shall be used before the third quarter as far as possible. We believe that the demand side of the new cultural infrastructure is rich and the capital side is abundant. At the same time, the superposition of resumption of work and production drives the centralized recognition of the income side. The performance of the company in the second half of the year is highly flexible.
Investment advice
The company is a leader in the field of g-end exhibition hall. Its core competence is digital technology, content creative design and its integration ability. In the next three years, it will benefit from the increasing demand for digital creative experience space construction under the support of policies, and its fundamentals are expected to remain excellent. At the same time, the company actively iterates and innovates its business model. There is room for performance flexibility in the medium term and has the potential to be upgraded to a platform company in the long term. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 570 million yuan, 775 million yuan and 983 million yuan respectively, with an increase of 29.8%, 36% and 26.8% respectively. Regardless of the impact of convertible bonds and share conversion, the corresponding EPS will be 1.35 yuan, 1.84 yuan and 2.33 yuan respectively, and the corresponding valuations will be 12 times, 9 times and 7 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The development of yuancosmos industry is less than expected, the strength of policy support is less than expected, the demand for new cultural infrastructure is less than expected, the intensity of industry competition is intensified, the duration of the impact of the epidemic is more than expected, the company's new orders are less than expected, the company's payment collection is less than expected, and there are more than expected bad debt losses.
