Russia's oil exports increased in April, and the trade flow has changed. In March this year, Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia successively announced a ban on the import of Russian oil. Although Russia is facing Western sanctions and Western countries may impose more sanctions on Russia in the future, in April this year, the total export volume of Russian oil (crude oil + petroleum products) still increased by 560000 barrels / day to 8 million barrels / day, returning to the average level from January to February this year. At the same time, after the United States and Britain announced the embargo on Russian oil imports, Russia's oil exports to the United Kingdom and the United States fell to almost zero in April, but the volume of Russian oil trade has obviously shifted from Europe and the United States to India, and the flow direction of Russian oil trade has changed.
Russia's oil exports returned to pre conflict levels in April, but the export structure changed. According to the assessment of Russia's oil trade in the may report released by the International Energy Information Agency IEA, from the perspective of the total export volume of crude oil and petroleum products, in April this year, the total export volume of Russia's oil increased by 560000 barrels / day to 8 million barrels / day, which is basically consistent with the average level from January to February this year. Specifically, on the one hand, Russia's oil exports to India and Turkey increased by 740000 barrels / day and 180000 barrels / day respectively. In addition, about 450000 barrels / day of shipping increment has no destination information. IEA believes that it is mainly oil products such as fuel oil and naphtha, which may be an inter ship transfer for subsequent export to Asia; On the other hand, Russia's oil exports to the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom decreased by 580000 barrels / day, 540000 barrels / day and 160000 barrels / day respectively, which was basically offset by an increase and a decrease.
The EU remains Russia's largest export market. From the distribution of Russian oil exports, the EU is still the largest export market of Russian oil. In April this year, Russia's oil exports to the EU were 3.37 million barrels per day, down 580000 barrels per day from January to February; Oil exports to the EU accounted for 42% of Russia's total exports, down 8pct from 50% from January to February. From January to February this year, the Anglo American market accounted for 9% of Russia's total exports, but by April this proportion had dropped to 1%; In April this year, Russia's share of oil exports to India rose from 1% to 10%, and its share of oil exports to Turkey Rose from 2% to 5%. Therefore, most of the decline in Russian exports to the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom has been offset by the increase in exports to India and Turkey, while the proportion of Russian oil exports to China remains unchanged at 21%.
In terms of crude oil and petroleum products, changes in Russian exports: for crude oil, the volume of Russian crude oil exports increased by 550000 barrels / day month on month in April, an increase of 650000 barrels / day compared with the average level from January to February. Crude oil exports to the EU decreased by 60000 barrels per day month on month, a total decrease of 310000 barrels per day compared with the average level from January to February. The proportion of Russia's crude oil exports to the EU decreased from 47% in January February to 37% in April, while the proportion of crude oil exports to India increased from 1% to 14%.
For petroleum products, the export volume of Russian petroleum products increased by 50000 barrels / day month on month in April, but decreased by 520000 barrels / day compared with the average level from January to February. The decline in Russian exports to the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom was 460000 B / D, 220000 B / D and 110000 B / D respectively, totaling 790000 B / D, which was only partially offset by the increase in undisclosed destinations (450000 B / D). In April, Russia's diesel exports fell by 60000 barrels / day to 815000 barrels / day month on month, down 155000 barrels / day from the average level from January to February. Compared with the average level from January to February, Russia's diesel exports to the EU decreased by 43000 barrels / day, and the decline in diesel exports to the UK, the United States and other regions was even greater. On the contrary, the proportion of diesel exports to the EU increased from 62% to 69%.
Affected by the decline in Russian oil prices, Russia's export revenue fell month on month in April. Russia's crude oil export volume in April will be significantly lower than that of Brent, although it is estimated that Russia's crude oil export volume will be significantly lower than that of Brent in April.
Risk factors: the risk of repeated epidemic and economic fluctuation; Geopolitical risk
