Core view
The lack of core has been significantly improved, and the production rhythm and scale have recovered rapidly. According to the data of the passenger Federation, 2.466 million passenger cars were produced in December, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a month on month increase of 10.6%. Among them, the production of luxury brands increased by 20.0% year-on-year and 18.0% month on month; The production of joint venture brands decreased by 1.0% year-on-year and increased by 11.0% month on month; The production of independent brands increased by 13.0% year-on-year and 8.0% month on month. The impact of chip shortage on production is gradually weakened, and the automotive industry is expected to continue to pick up in 2022.
Increase in wholesale sales and replenishment of inventory to prepare for the sales sprint before the Spring Festival. In December, the wholesale sales volume of manufacturers was 2.366 million, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% and a month on month increase of 10.0%. Affected by the epidemic situation and chip shortage, the industry inventory coefficient has been decreasing this year. Since Q4, the chip pressure has eased, and manufacturers have quickly replenished their inventory. At the end of December, manufacturers’ inventory increased by 100000 units month on month, and dealers’ inventory increased by 90000 units month on month. Sufficient inventory has laid a good foundation for the sales sprint before the Spring Festival.
Retail sales have improved significantly month on month. In December 2021, the passenger car market retailed 2.105 million vehicles, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% and a month on month increase of 15.9%. The retail trend is very obvious. With the arrival of the peak sales season at the end of the year, the increase of manufacturers’ production batches has driven the improvement of terminal inventory level, superimposed the preferential promotion of dealers, and realized the continuous strengthening of retail month on month trend.
New energy vehicles have partially replaced the traditional vehicle market and accelerated the pace of transformation. In December, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles was 505000, with a year-on-year increase of 138.9% and a month on month increase of 17.8%. Throughout the year, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles was 3.312 million, a year-on-year increase of 181.0%. In December, 475000 new energy passenger vehicles were retailed, with a year-on-year increase of 128.8% and a month on month increase of 25.4%. Throughout the year, the retail sales of new energy vehicles was 2.989 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%. The significant increase in sales volume has led to a rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 15.7% in 2021, an increase of 9.9pct compared with 5.8% in 2020. In 2022, the subsidy policy abolished the scale ceiling of 2 million vehicles, which is conducive to the continued rapid growth of the scale of the new energy vehicle industry. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach 5.5 million, an increase of 66.1% year-on-year.
Focus on strong cycle vehicle enterprises and fast-growing auto electronic parts enterprises. Vehicle enterprises focus on Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (the strong product cycle has come, and the mitigation of chip supply promotes the rapid release of performance), and parts enterprises focus on Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) (the underestimated value constructs the safety margin, and the continuous large-scale production of Volkswagen Id family + red flag products drives the performance growth of core suppliers.)
Risk tip: repeated outbreaks have led to chip supply falling short of expectations.
