\u3000\u30001. Recomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomcombinations: 60031 Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) , Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , Shareate Tools Ltd(688257)
\u3000\u30002. Key investment points:
Photovoltaic equipment: Huasheng hjt has accelerated its production expansion and continues to be optimistic about the photovoltaic equipment sector with long-term and stable growth
Huasheng hjt’s production expansion has made more progress than expected. It plans to carry out the construction of phase III 4.8gw double-sided microcrystalline heterojunction intelligent factory project in Xuancheng. On April 29, the civil bidding for the 2.4gw high-efficiency heterojunction plant in the first phase of the project has been officially launched. It is expected that the 4.8gw project will complete the moving in and commissioning of all equipment in q1-q3 in 2023. On May 18, Huasheng officially signed a cooperation agreement with Dali state government and Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) to jointly invest in the construction of 5GW heterojunction battery and module project in Dali. In addition, Huasheng new materials Co., Ltd. was incorporated in February 2022 to prepare thinner n-type silicon wafers and accelerate the cost reduction of hjt silicon wafers. At present, the phase I project plans to achieve a production capacity of 1.8gw.
In the long run, photovoltaic equipment is one of the sectors with long-term and stable performance growth in the mechanical sector – cost reduction and efficiency increase of the industry driven by technological iteration is the core driving force, and in the medium term, it is optimistic about the logic of photovoltaic equipment manufacturers expanding to semiconductor equipment & Equipment going to sea logic.
The dynamic balance between market share and gross profit rate of leading equipment manufacturers verifies the logic of “the strong is always strong”, and photovoltaic equipment belongs to non-standard equipment. The deduction between the trend of net profit rate and cost rate verifies the logic of “scale effect”. Investment suggestion: recommend Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ; Recommended battery device Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ; Component equipment recommendation Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; Recommend Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) .
Wind power equipment: focus on recommending parts with better competition pattern, and pay attention to the leading position of stock price at the bottom
Wind power equipment: focus on recommending parts with better competition pattern, and pay attention to the leading position of stock price at the bottom
In the short term, we expect the installed capacity of offshore wind power to be about 6-7gw in 2022, which has decreased, but it is in line with industry expectations. After the window period, it is expected to reach 12-13gw in 2023. Considering onshore wind power, the installed capacity of wind power in 2022 will still exceed 50gw. In the medium and long term, with the advent of the era of parity, China’s wind power industry is expected to enter a rapid development stage driven by market demand. Taking offshore wind power as an example, after the refund and supplement in 2022, we expect that the new installed capacity of offshore wind power in coastal provinces in the 14th five year plan will exceed 70gw, about 8 times that in the 13th five year plan. Overland wind power has entered the era of parity, and the industry is expected to continue to grow steadily, Parts with better competition pattern are expected to benefit in depth. [ ] [ ] ɝɝ35
Semiconductor equipment: orders continue to grow rapidly and continue to be recommended
In 2022, the downstream sub sectors of the global semiconductor industry showed differentiation, but the overall industry boom is still high, and the performance of TSMC’s revenue, Lam and other orders can be verified. In the Chinese market, the operating rate of wafer factories is still high, and equipment bidding continues to be implemented, showing a month on month improvement. In the context of the growth of the whole industry, the unique import substitution logic of equipment has become increasingly prominent. We believe that equipment is the best subdivision of the logic of the current semiconductor industry, especially in events such as external sanctions. Domestic wafer factories have accelerated domestic substitution, and the overall growth rate of new orders signed by local semiconductor equipment enterprises in 22 years has exceeded 50%. Highlight Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) , Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , shengmei Shanghai, and suggest paying attention to tuojing technology; A domestic semiconductor component leader is recommended.
General automation: the rigid demand in the lower reaches of the high boom is still there, waiting for the improvement of the epidemic situation and the rebound of demand
Under the impact of the epidemic, the manufacturing boom is low, and the investment side remains resilient. The PMI in April was 47.4, down 2.1pct from the previous month, reflecting the impact of the epidemic on the manufacturing industry. The added value of manufacturing industry in April was – 4.6% year-on-year, lower than the cumulative year-on-year + 6.2% from January to March. From January to April, the fixed asset investment of manufacturing industry increased by + 12% year-on-year, still showing obvious toughness. The manufacturing industry fell to the bottom in April, but a marginal change for the better can now be observed. On the one hand, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has been gradually controllable; On the other hand, the logistics situation has also begun to improve. We believe that the timely control of the epidemic is the key to the recovery of the manufacturing industry. The short-term performance of 2022q2 general automation related companies still fluctuates, but the downstream rigid demand always exists. In the follow-up, with the gradual convergence of the epidemic, the prosperity of the sector is expected to rise significantly.
Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : new energy and other emerging downstream demand is strong, and Q2 peak season may move back under the influence of the epidemic. From January to April, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) produced 125000 units, a year-on-year increase of – 1.4%; Among them, the output of 32500 units in April was – 9.4% year-on-year and – 26.6% month on month. From the downstream, emerging industries such as lithium batteries, new energy vehicles and photovoltaic still maintain rapid growth. Under the influence of the epidemic, Chinese brands have great advantages over foreign capital in terms of delivery time, which brings opportunities for domestic substitution. In the short term, the epidemic situation has a great impact on the production and sales of Q2 industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry. In previous years, Q2 is usually the peak sales season. We believe that driven by the downstream demand, the peak season of the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry in 2022 is expected to be put behind, and the industry will recover after the epidemic situation subsides.
The machine tool industry declined slightly, and the cutting tools benefited from the opportunity of import substitution. In April, the output of metal cutting machine tools was 50000 units, with a year-on-year increase of – 19% and a month on month increase of – 17%; In March, the output of metal forming machine tools was 24000, up – 4% year-on-year. As the core parts of machine tools, cutting tools fully benefit from the import substitution caused by the obstruction of import logistics. At present, the orders of major enterprises are still relatively full, and the production scheduling cycle is about 1-2 months (cutting tools are consumables, and the normal production scheduling cycle is 1 month). Investment suggestions: industrial automation recommendations Dongguan Yiheda Automation Co.Ltd(301029) , Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) , Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ; Recommended tools Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) , Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) ; The machine tool industry recommends Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) , and it is suggested to pay attention to Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) .
Construction machinery: the sales volume of excavator in April was – 47% year-on-year, optimistic about the steady growth policy and the recovery of the industry in the second half of the year
In April 2022, the sales volume of excavator industry was 24534 units, with a year-on-year increase of – 47.3%, basically in line with the previous CME expectation of – 43%. Among them, 16032 units were sold in China, with a year-on-year increase of – 61.0%; 8502 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of + 55.2%. The overall decline of the excavator industry in April was still large, mainly due to the high base in the same period and the impact of the epidemic on downstream construction and equipment sales. Looking to the future, we believe that the decline of the industry is expected to narrow significantly from May, and the decline of Q3 industry is expected to narrow to single digits or even become positive. The marginal improvement trend of the industry in the second half of the year has room for the steady growth policy after the superposition of the epidemic, which is expected to help the industry recover. Recommend [ Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ] [ Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ] [ Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ] [ Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) ].
Risk warning: the downstream fixed asset investment is less than the market expectation; Cyclical fluctuations in the industry; The impact of the epidemic continues.
