Beer sector: the high-end trend remains unchanged, and we look forward to the recovery in the peak season after the epidemic
1) review: in 2021, the high-end upgrading was significant, and the leading advantage of 2022q1 beer was prominent. In 2021, the cost side of the beer industry was under pressure in 2021. The listed liquor enterprises hedged through the effective transmission of product structure upgrading and price increase, and the performance achieved a steady increase in volume and price. At the same time, the sales volume of medium and high-grade products in the product structure increased significantly; In Q1 2022, from January to February, thanks to the increase in terminal demand of the Spring Festival, the mobile sales of listed liquor enterprises were in good condition and achieved a high growth rate. In March, due to the significant impact of the epidemic in some regions, the existing drinking places were damaged, and some consumer consumption scenes changed from offline to online, which affected the sales volume of high-end products. On the whole, the resilience of leading liquor enterprises in the first quarter of 2022 was obvious, and the sales growth rate was remarkable, Among them, the sales growth of Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) Chongqing / Lebao / 1664 brands achieved double-digit growth in the first quarter, and the sales growth of China Resources beer Q1 secondary high-end and above products also maintained double-digit high-speed growth.
2) Outlook: from April to may, affected by the epidemic, the offline consumption scene in the sealed area was damaged, and we look forward to the recovery after the epidemic in the peak season. Since April 2022, the epidemic has broken out in many places, and the beer sales have been impacted. The sales of China Resources beer from January to April fell slightly year-on-year, and improved month on month in May. Liquor enterprises actively carry out community group purchase in severely damaged areas, cooperate with online channels to reach consumers, and achieve sales recovery as soon as possible for multi-channel layout in less affected areas. Moreover, the beer industry is about to enter the peak season in summer in the second half of the year. With the recovery of channels and the increase of Consumption Willingness, most listed liquor enterprises have high certainty of performance growth. In addition, from the overall channel feedback, dealers are also preparing goods for the peak season, We believe that the closure and control of the epidemic has a certain impact on the industry, but the leading liquor enterprises have strong toughness and look forward to the recovery after the epidemic in the peak season.
3) key points of investment: the high-end trend of the industry is not reduced. It is expected to usher in a new situation of volume and price improvement in the peak season after the epidemic, and we are optimistic about the realization of leading performance. Q1 benefited from the Spring Festival sales, and the performance of the beer sector improved. In Q2, due to the uncertainty of the epidemic situation, the reduction of transportation scope and the damage of offline consumption scenes will still restrict the industry, but it has improved month on month in May. The whole summer sales season of beer will also be an important node to determine whether the annual performance can be realized. The beer sector benefiting from the population economy is expected to gradually usher in the recovery of the peak season. Looking forward to 2022, the high-end trend will continue, the price increase effect will be superimposed, and the leading companies in the advantageous channel layout will still show strong toughness. It is suggested to pay attention to Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , China Resources beer.
Dairy products: the impact of the epidemic is limited, and the leader shows the certainty of profit
Overall, the impact of the epidemic in 2022 is limited, and dairy enterprises actively adjust their strategies Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) benefited from the demand for home baking, the C-end sales of catering cheese performed well. China flying crane has not been out of stock in different regions, and has set up sites in the community to promote sales with the help of online communities New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) quickly adjust the supply chain and actively promote TOC business. Vipshop and Shuangfeng achieved good growth in April. 2022h1 and the outlook for the whole year, the strategy is clear, and the leading advantages appear under uncertainty Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) adheres to the strategy of “refining at low temperature and expanding at normal temperature”, continuously improves the proportion of high-end products at low temperature, quickly lays channels at normal temperature, and arranges “n” level large products such as catering cheese slices. During the implementation of China Feihe fresh strategy, we actively adjusted the channel inventory and controlled the price. The average target inventory of all products throughout the year was 1.4 times and that of xingfeifan was 1.2 times. At the product end, Zhuo Rui focuses on ultra-high end +, and at the channel end, it focuses on promoting high-end series products in low-line cities New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) the three-year doubling target is proceeding in an orderly manner. The market share in key markets continues to increase, the proportion of new product sales is increased, and the fresh milk business capacity with strong profitability continues to expand. The target is to realize that the low-temperature yogurt business is growing.
Key investment points: dairy products have strong mandatory attributes and strong certainty of leading profit. Under the epidemic situation, the terminal demand of dairy products is strong against the trend, and the supply side is damaged, which will affect the dynamic sales in the short term, but the leader shows strong anti risk ability. Dairy enterprises feed back that the cost pressure will slow down in 2022 and will pay attention to the efficiency of cost investment. Yili and Mengniu are strategically divided. The Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) market position is stable, the competition pattern of dairy products is optimized, and the superposition of leaders will continue to upgrade the product structure and improve the profitability. It is recommended that Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Mengniu Dairy industry, and it is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) .
Risk tips: the macro environment is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is repeated, the demand recovery of food and beverage is less than expected, and food safety problems.
