Express delivery: the volume and price of express delivery in April were significantly disturbed by the epidemic; At present, the industry continues to recover. It is optimistic that the growth rate of parts after the epidemic will gradually pick up, and the price is stable and good. We will continue to recommend leading companies.
1) in April, the quantity and price of Tongda and Shunfeng were significantly disturbed by the epidemic, and the worst time point has passed: ① piece quantity: the growth rate of the industry in April was – 11.9%, with a decline of about 9pts compared with that in March; April Yunda – 19.4%, Yuantong – 4.8%, Shentong – 7.7%. The growth rate of circular parts volume is relatively bright, and the absolute volume has risen to the second in the industry; Yunda was affected by the diagnosis of Shanxi express employees in early April, and the growth rate lagged behind its peers. ② Price: in April, the industrial unit price was + 2.1% year on year and + 3.3% month on month; In April, the unit price of Yuantong was + 16.41% year-on-year, up 0.03 yuan month on month; Yunda + 24.02% year-on-year, down 0.06 yuan month on month; Shentong + 20.66% year-on-year, up 0.01 yuan month on month. Yuantong implemented its own price strategy in place, and raised the average price due to the structural changes in grain producing areas and non grain producing areas affected by the epidemic; Yunda may focus on the share in stages, and the change of cargo weight and the price base in March have an impact. ③ SF: the number of pieces in April was – 10.0% year-on-year (March – 7.9%), and the growth rate was slightly higher than that in March, which was in line with the industry trend as a whole. We paid attention to the impact of the company’s demand for anti epidemic protection during the epidemic period. In April, the unit price was + 1.65% year-on-year, down 0.12 yuan month on month. The product structure continued to be optimized, and the unit price fell slightly month on month. In April, there was a great disturbance to the volume and price of the epidemic. We believe that the current industry is generally stable. At the same time, the prices in the main grain producing areas have been adjusted to form a more reasonable price ecology. We are optimistic about the stability and improvement of the industry prices after the epidemic.
2) the industry is expected to resume positive growth in May. Shanghai strives to fully resume the postal express business in the first and middle of June, and the National Express Logistics continues to recover: at present, Shanghai is gradually unsealed, the epidemic situation of Beijing Express is controllable, the epidemic area is orderly promoted to resume work and production, and the demand replenishment is expected to drive the growth rate in May. According to the data disclosed by the Ministry of transport, the average daily delivery volume of May 1-20 countries is 318 million, compared with 297 million in May 2021, In May, the national express delivery volume has resumed positive growth. From May 14 to 20, the national average daily delivery volume was 329 million, up + 2% from last week. On May 19, the Shanghai Municipal Postal Administration introduced that 20 major distribution processing centers in the city have resumed operation. It is expected that by the first and middle of June, all distribution processing centers, branches and business outlets of postal express enterprises will resume operation. It is expected that by the middle of June, the collection level will return to about 70% of the usual daily average level. It is expected that with the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation, the recovery trend is expected to accelerate.
The express logistics industry continues to recover and the logistics supply guarantee policy continues to work. We generally believe that the worst impact has passed and the inflection point of the industry has emerged. For Tongda system, the single ticket profit of each company remains at a high level, the demand recovery is optimistic in the future, and the leading performance continues to improve; For SF, short-term operation adjustment is in place, superimposed with strict cost control, the company’s performance continues to improve, benefit timeliness, international and other diversified business layout, with growth, and we are still optimistic about the medium and long-term allocation value. A shares mainly recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and American stocks are optimistic about China Express.
Aviation: civil aviation passenger transport was significantly impacted by the epidemic in April, and the number of flights has picked up since May; After the epidemic subsides, China’s airline demand is expected to rebound rapidly, and pay attention to the release of summer transportation demand.
1) affected by the epidemic in April, the supply and demand of the three major airlines were insufficient. The top 20% of the epidemic: each aviation company disclosed the operation data in April. Compared with 2019, the rpk-88.2% and ask-82.7% of the three major airlines in April. In April, the total seating rate of the three major airlines was 56.4%, a difference of 31.7 PCT from 82.5% in April 2019. In April, the epidemic situation in Shanghai continued to have an obvious impact on supply and demand; At the same time, due to the tightening of entry and exit, the number of international flights has increased, and the traffic volume of international lines has continued to decline. The epidemic situation in the first tier cities is repeated, and the performance of each aviation department is basically the same. The decline in RPK of spring and autumn and China Southern Airlines was relatively small, mainly due to the severe impact of the current round of epidemic in first tier cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou, and the proportion of airport routes of spring and autumn and the second and third tier of China Southern Airlines was higher than that of other airlines.
2) the number of flights across the country continued to rise in May, paying attention to the recovery of demand after the epidemic subsided: from May 14 to 20, 32221 flights were carried out by civil aviation passenger flights across the country, with a month on month increase of + 12.3%, compared with – 67.6% in 2019. The number of flights in May continued to recover. China Southern Airlines / China Eastern Airlines / Air China (excluding subsidiaries) carried out 6169 / 3886 / 2430 flights, a month on month increase of + 31.3% / + 16.0% / – 1.2%, compared with – 57.5% / – 74.0% / – 73.7% in 2019. Affected by the epidemic situation in Beijing and Shanghai, the recovery progress of Air China and China Eastern Airlines is inferior to that of China Southern Airlines. 1164 / 525 flights were carried out in spring and autumn / Jixiang, with a month on month increase of + 4.7% / + 45.4%, which was significantly higher than – 56.3% / – 81.8% in 2019. According to the passenger flow law since 2020 and the recovery experience of Europe and the United States, the aviation supply and demand is expected to rise rapidly after unsealing, and pay attention to the release of summer transportation demand.
3) the Beijing Guangzhou corridor was officially opened, significantly increasing the airspace capacity: at 0:00 on May 19, the Beijing Guangzhou corridor airspace structure adjustment scheme (south section scheme) was officially opened. The Beijing Guangzhou corridor connects the two world-class airport clusters of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao. It will carry out parallel and unidirectional transformation along the original route to realize the route characteristics of “two up, two down and one-way circulation”. According to the China civil aviation news, the Beijing Guangzhou channel is expected to increase the airspace capacity of flights in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and the Great Bay area and along the line by nearly 40%. The opening of the Beijing Guangzhou corridor will help to further improve the airspace capacity, improve the airspace conditions and reduce flight delays.
On the demand side, the impact of the short-term epidemic is expected to approach the inflection point, and the suppressed travel demand will gradually recover. On the supply side, the introduction of airlines’ transport capacity is slow, and it will take time for Boeing and Airbus to accumulate orders and restore production capacity. After years of sinking market development, China’s airspace resources are close to the bottleneck, and the low-speed growth of supply in the medium term has high certainty. In addition, the market-oriented reform of civil aviation ticket prices has opened up the space for price elasticity. The inflection point of supply and demand certainty is superimposed on the upward ticket price, and aviation is expected to usher in a round of growth cycle. Focus on recommending Air China Limited(601111) (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); Low cost aviation leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ; China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , with high proportion of Chinese lines and high performance flexibility; China Eastern Airlines with obvious location advantages; Pay attention to regional airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Airport: the airport operation is still at a low level, and the number of flights in Beijing and Shanghai is still less than 10% before the epidemic. According to the flight steward data (05.14-05.20), capital / Hongqiao / Baiyun / Bao’an / Pudong China carried out 655 / 26 / 1914 / 3960 / 51 flights, with a month on month ratio of – 7.0% / + 73.3% / + 588.5% / + 4.6% / + 96.2%, compared with – 91.4% / – 99.5% / – 72.0% / – 29.8% / – 99.0% in 2019. In Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shenzhen, the number of flights at Shenzhen Bao’an airport is about 70% of that before the epidemic, the number of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) flights in Guangzhou is about 30% of that before the epidemic, and the number of flights in Beijing and Shanghai is still less than 10% of that before the epidemic. The short-term airport aviation business has declined due to the disturbance of the epidemic and the impact of epidemic prevention policies. If the epidemic situation improves in the future, China’s international aviation passenger flow is expected to gradually recover; At the same time, as a key node of logistics, the recent “logistics guarantee” policy emphasizes that the airport shall not be shut down at will, and the pressure may be relieved gradually with the implementation of the policy.
In the long run, the airport’s aviation business is stable, while the tax-free industry has huge space. Listed airports will continue to benefit from tax-free dividends in the future, focusing on the airport leaders Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Highway: the national freight vehicle flow continued to rise, Shanghai in the Yangtze River Delta was still affected by the epidemic, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang rebounded significantly. Since May, road freight has gradually recovered. From May 12 to 18, the average value of the national vehicle freight flow index was 98.75, with a month on month increase of + 8.44%. In the Yangtze River Delta, Shanghai is still seriously impacted. The average value of the index from May 12 to 18 was + 11.25% month on month and – 80.58% year-on-year. From May 12 to May 18, the average value of Jiangsu / Zhejiang index was + 14.25% / + 5.71% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of – 18.47% / – 6.23%, which was significantly improved month on month. With the improvement of the epidemic situation in Shanghai, the work of ensuring connectivity and smoothness continues to be promoted, and road freight is expected to continue to recover.
This week’s investment strategy: the volume of express business recovered in May, and the industry accelerated its recovery. For the Tongda system, the single ticket profit of each company remained at a high level and was optimistic about the improvement of leading performance; SF has adjusted its operation in place and is optimistic about the value of medium and long-term layout. China’s aviation industry is still optimistic about the short-term recovery of supply and demand, but the supply and demand of China’s aviation industry is still constrained by the long-term recovery of demand and supply. Combination of this week: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Air China Limited(601111) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Risk tips:
1) the risk of macroeconomic downturn will have a great impact on the overall demand for transportation.
2) the price competition in the express industry exceeds the market expectation. At present, the price war in the express industry is generally controllable, but it does not rule out a large-scale price war, eroding the profits of listed companies.
3) risk of rising oil price and labor cost. Transportation and labor costs, as the main costs of transportation companies, may face the risk of rising oil prices and sharply rising labor costs.
