Clarify the price limit range of thermal coal, and coal enterprise utilities are expected to provide valuation
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission issued the sixth series of interpretation of coal price regulation and supervision policies to explain the definition (SCOPE) of thermal coal in Document No. 4 of 2022, so as to strengthen the supervision of the spot price of thermal coal. The evaluation standard is the literal meaning of power coal, and the scope of spot price limit is widened to other power coal except power coal. In the context of global energy supply shortage, coal price still has a strong upward momentum. The price limit makes the coal price operate close to the upper limit, showing strong performance stability. If the high score red is superimposed, it will tend to the public utility industry, which is expected to improve the valuation of the industry as a whole. The raw coal, overseas coal and coking coal of coal chemical industry will not be controlled and will still have price elasticity.
Clarify the scope of spot supervision of power coal, and coal for coal chemical raw materials does not belong to this category
According to the content of No. 4 document of the national development and Reform Commission in 2022, the spot price of thermal coal shall not exceed 1.5 times, of which the price of port thermal coal (5500k, the same below) shall not exceed 1155 yuan / ton, and the price of pithead thermal coal in main producing areas shall not exceed 855 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 780 yuan / ton in Shaanxi and 690 yuan / ton in Mengxi. From the perspective of coal price regulation policy, Document No. 4 should be the first time that the national development and Reform Commission uses the name of “thermal coal” for supervision. However, there is a great deviation in the understanding of the definition (SCOPE) of “thermal coal” in the market, because “thermal coal” is a very broad concept. If taken literally, that is, as long as the coal used to generate power can be called thermal coal. In addition, there are two concepts: the narrow concept, that is, only the coal used for power generation and heating belongs to power coal; In a broad sense, coal other than coking can be called power coal, including coal used for electric heating, cement, metallurgical combustion and coal chemical industry. Considering that the policy regulation of coal price is more inclined to the power industry, the market has no ambiguity about the price limit of electric coal used for electric heating. The main concern is whether the coal used in cement, metallurgical combustion and coal chemical industry is regulated. At present, the policy has made it clear that the NDRC has adopted the interpretation of the literal meaning of “power coal”, that is, power coal, cement and metallurgical combustion are regarded as power coal, and the fuel coal in coal chemical industry is expected to be within this regulatory scope, while the raw material coal in coal chemical industry is clearly not power coal.
The flow direction takes precedence over the calorific value evaluation, and the price above 6000K is not unregulated
Judging from the interpretation of power coal by the national development and Reform Commission, the standard for judging power coal is that the flow direction takes precedence over the calorific value. No matter what the calorific value of coal is, as long as it flows to power generation and heating, or for the purpose of combustion to provide power, it can be regarded as power coal, including coal above 6000K. The explanation of the term 6000K focuses more on those below 6000K, that is, they are all thermal coal, and they are the goal of the regulatory price limit of the national development and Reform Commission.
The performance of power coal is stable, and the price elasticity of coal chemical raw material coal, overseas coal and coking coal benefits
Evaluation of stable performance of power coal: the annual long-term association of power coal will be strictly controlled by policies; The spot price of fuel coal for power generation and heating, cement, metallurgical combustion and coal chemical industry is 1.5 times the upper limit of the annual long-term agreement and is strictly controlled. At present, these thermal coal spot can be understood as a generalized long-term association, with policy constraints and hidden ceilings, but the amplitude and range are higher than the annual long-term association of power coal. In the future, when the coal supply is tight, the price of thermal coal will have a strong upward momentum, because the price control will eventually lead to the operation of the price close to the upper limit, and the performance of coal enterprises will be high and stable. If the high dividend and high dividend rate are superimposed, it will tend to the public service industry, and the valuation is expected to be significantly improved. In particular, the companies with high annual long-term association share will benefit more from the impact of spot price limit, Beneficiary objects: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , power investment energy, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) . Price elasticity of coal chemical raw material coal: Although this kind of coal is still elastic, it is more elastic, because its coal is not essentially different from power coal, and will still be regulated by the price law and cannot rise extremely. Companies with a large proportion of coal chemical include: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , Yankuang energy. The benefit price of overseas coal and coking coal is completely elastic: overseas coal and coking coal are completely market-oriented, there is no policy constraint, which is fully elastic, and the price is determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand. This kind of coal still has obvious cyclical attribute, and the price rise is still the strongest catalyst. With the global energy crisis and China’s steady growth, the prices of overseas coal and coking coal are expected to rise all the way. Beneficiary companies: Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Yankuang energy, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) (coking coal and smokeless injection coal account for a large proportion, and some coal chemical raw materials coal).
Risk tip: there is a downside risk of economic growth, a risk that the epidemic recovery is less than expected, and a risk of accelerated substitution of new energy
