Core view
Since the drug review reform in 2015, the pharmaceutical sector has witnessed a magnificent market. Although there are factors such as centralized purchase of generic drugs, centralized purchase of devices and the impact of epidemic situation after 2018, and the pharmaceutical index has been adjusted periodically, medicine still rises spirally with multiple attributes of manufacturing, technology and consumption. From 2022 to 2024, the DRG / Dip payment reform will be fully promoted, and the non-standard medical insurance expenditure will withdraw from the historical stage, but the payment organization reform can not be simply understood as fee control; With the reform of payment mode, new requirements are put forward for drugs and consumables: either minimize the cost or maximize the clinical value. Covid-19 vaccination and covid-19 epidemic prevention mainly use the stock funds of medical insurance and local finance or individual self payment, which has a limited impact on medical insurance. How will the pharmaceutical sector perform in 2022? We believe that the trend of pharmaceutical differentiation that has lasted for many years may be revised, and the choice of track may be weakened, but it is still very important: the prosperity of CXO, medical services, upstream equipment and consumables is still very high, while the marginal changes of traditional Chinese medicine, API and other sectors with low valuation will also have better investment opportunities; As long as the matching degree between valuation and growth rate is reasonable and the policy pressure is not obvious, most stock prices will have significant excess returns.? From the perspective of specific sub industries, high-end manufacturing represented by CXO, API, life science services and other medical devices is the most determined sub sector of pharmaceutical investment in 2022, with high prosperity and broad import substitution space; Scientific and technological innovation enterprises represented by innovative drugs and new vaccines have made deep adjustments in the second half of 21 due to frequent Chinese policies and uncertainty in overseas markets. In 2022, with the stability of policy expectations and the promotion of innovation and R & D, it is expected that the stock price will be repaired; The pharmaceutical consumption represented by household medical devices, medical services and traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods is not affected by the policy. The long slope and thick snow are suitable for institutional reconfiguration.
Eight stocks are recommended in 2022: Baicheng pharmaceutical, Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) .
[specific configuration ideas]
In the field of traditional Chinese medicine, Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , etc
API field: recommend Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , and pay attention to Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , etc
Innovative drug industry chain and innovative drug field: recommend Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) and so on. It is recommended to pay attention to Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) biotech innovative drugs: recommend Nuo Cheng Jianhua, Rongchang biology, Corning Jerry and so on. It is recommended to pay attention to Cinda biology, Keji pharmaceutical and Hehuang medicine
Vaccine field: recommended Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , etc
Growth hormone field: recommended Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) , etc
Medical services: recommend Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) , Jinxin reproduction, etc., and pay attention to Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , haijiya, etc
Medical and aesthetic fields: recommended Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , etc
Medical devices: recommended Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc
Blood products: recommended Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) , recommended Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294)
[risk tips]
Risk of exceeding the expected price reduction of drugs and consumables; The implementation of medical reform policy is lower than expected risk; The progress of drug research and development is less than expected, the risk of drug research and development failure, the risk of innovative drugs and enterprise sea policy, the risk of centralized procurement, and the prevention and control of covid-19 epidemic situation are less than expected;
