Key investment points
Zhou viewpoint: clarify the monthly business data of meals, tea and drinks
The market explores the current situation of the catering industry under the epidemic situation by tracking the operation of leading catering enterprises, but there are differences in the caliber and calculation methods of each enterprise. This paper attempts to clarify the specific caliber of the monthly data of catering and tea enterprises, and analyze it from the perspectives of the same store caliber, calculation method, whether to eliminate the suspended stores and data comparability, so as to facilitate the horizontal and vertical comparison and analysis of investors, and outline the most real business appearance under the epidemic situation.
Caliber: Haidilao: the year-on-year recovery of turnover rate of overall and comparable stores. Jiumaojiu: the same store turnover of jiumaojiu restaurant and Taier pickled vegetable fish recovered year-on-year. Helen: the year-on-year recovery of the average daily revenue of a single store in the same store. Naixue's tea: the year-on-year recovery of average daily revenue of the same store.
Same store standard: the comparable store of Haidilao and the same store of hailun company are those that have opened in the same period last year and have business days in this month, but have not been closed for the whole month. Jiumaojiu's same store is the opening store for 12 months, that is, all stores opened in the same period last year. It is not required to be in operation this month. Naixue's tea stores are all standard stores. Since the standard stores have been open for more than one year, they are all mature stores.
Calculation method: 1) seabed salvage turnover rate = total number of service tables / (average number of tables total business days). The total number of service tables is the number of tables that produce business activities in the current month; The average number of tables is the average of the actual number of tables in all stores; The total number of business days is the number of stores the weighted number of opening days of these stores, and the stores closed due to the impact of the epidemic are excluded. 2) Jiumaojiu same store turnover = the total turnover of the opened stores in the same period last year, and the suspended stores are not excluded. 3) The average daily sales of a single store of hailun company = the sum of the average daily revenue of each natong store. The average daily revenue of a single store = the revenue of the current month / effective business days. The closure of natong's business stores is excluded through the effective business days. 4) The average daily sales of the same store of Naixue tea = the sum of the single store revenue per day, and the average value is taken. The single store revenue per day = the average value of all standard stores in a day. The closure of natong's stores is eliminated through the single store revenue per day. The operation performance of Pro store is not reflected in the monthly data.
Data comparability: 1) horizontal comparison: through the tea of Haidilao, Helens and Naixue, we can spy on the operation status of normal catering stores, while jiumaojiu provides a perspective to reflect the impact of strict epidemic prevention and control measures on the catering industry. 2) Longitudinal comparison: the impact of the epidemic from March to April was obvious, and the May Day link was improved. In March 2022, the overall / comparable store turnover rate of Haidilao was 80% + / 70% + in the same period of 2021. In April, the overall / comparable store turnover rate recovered to 80% + / 75% in the same period of 2021. The turnover rate in May Day mainland was higher than the average in April. During March / April / May Day, the average daily sales of the same store of hellens recovered to 66% / 60% / 75% in the same period in 2021. In March / April, the same store revenue of Taier returned to 60% / 52% in the same period of 2021, and that of May Day returned to 57% in the same period of 2021. In March and April of September 9th, the same store revenue recovered to 80% / 74% of the same period in 2021, and on May 1st, it recovered to 78% of the same period in 2021. Naixue's tea in the same store in March and April decreased by 30% / 45% compared with the same period in 2021, and Wuyi's same store increased by more than 20% compared with that in March and April.
Key investment points: looking forward to the future, the repeated epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty in the industry. In the long run, the trend of industry branding & chain is still accelerating, and the leaders continue to benefit. With the steady epidemic prevention and control, we are optimistic about the upward flexibility of the performance in the era of epidemic after the catering leader. We mainly recommend jiumaojiu, and recommend the tea of Helens, Haidilao and Naixue. It is suggested to pay attention to Yum china-s. We are optimistic about the catering supply chain opportunities under the general trend of catering industrialization and recommend Yihai international.
Risk warning: the risk of continuous epidemic spread, macroeconomic fluctuations and policy changes; Risk of fierce competition in the industry; The progress of business transformation, market development and capacity improvement is lower than the market expected risk.
