Interest rate cut, resumption of work and steady growth are imminent, and the value of coal stocks is prominent
The port price of thermal coal this week is the same as last week, and the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang is 1205 yuan / ton. Supply side: China's supply is not loose. The shortage of Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) coal management ticket has led to partial production reduction, local epidemic and safety production pressure, overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao line, and certain restrictions on coal shipment. At the same time, there is also the phenomenon of giving priority to ensuring the annual long-term agreement of power coal and reducing the amount of coal in the market; Demand side: at present, it is still in the off-season of coal consumption, the peak summer season has not yet come, and the daily consumption of the power plant is still low. Later judgment: in terms of supply, the convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in the second half of the year will bring pressure on environmental protection and safety supervision, and production may be subject to certain restrictions. In addition, the EU's ban on Russian coal will also reduce imports; In terms of demand, the Politburo has made requirements for steady growth in infrastructure, real estate and other industries. The national epidemic has improved and the resumption of work and production is imminent, and the demand for industrial electricity is expected to rebound. In terms of coking coal, after the safety inspection in Shanxi at the supply end, the operating rate increased, the epidemic situation improved, and the transportation capacity recovered; The operating rate of coking plant on the demand side is stable. Later judgment: China's output of coking coal has no significant increase and there is no supply guarantee policy. Affected by the epidemic and transportation capacity, even if the amount of imported coal from Russia and Mongolia is limited under zero tariff, China's tight supply state is difficult to change; On the demand side, with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the force of the steady growth policy, real estate and infrastructure will drive the demand for coking coal in the upstream to rebound, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound. On the policy side, LPR was lowered by 15 basis points this week, which exceeded market expectations, and the intention to help "steady growth" was obvious; The regulation of "price stabilization" is frequent. The national development and Reform Commission has continuously issued six interpretations of coal price supervision policies, clarifying the reasonable range of coal price and the specific standards for driving up coal price. At the same time, it has clarified the price limit range of thermal coal. Coal used for cement and metallurgy are thermal coal, and coal used as raw material for coal chemical industry is not thermal coal. When the price of most thermal coal is limited, it will tend to be the logic of public utilities to provide valuation in the future; The raw material coal involved in coal chemical industry still has a certain elasticity; Overseas coal and coking coal have complete elasticity. Most coal enterprises have high dividend yield, and most valuations are only 4 or 5 times, with high safety margin. The allocation value of coal stocks is particularly prominent. Objects benefiting from high dividends: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yankuang energy, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) ; Objects benefiting from energy transformation: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ; Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: the port price of power coal was flat this week, and the guaranteed supply led to the reduction of coal in the market
This week (may 16-may 20, 2022), the port price of thermal coal is the same as last week, and the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang is 1205 yuan / ton. Supply side: China's supply is not loose. The shortage of Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) coal management ticket has led to partial production reduction, local epidemic and safety production pressure, overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao line, and certain restrictions on coal shipment. At the same time, there is also the phenomenon of giving priority to ensuring the annual long-term agreement of power coal and reducing the amount of coal in the market; Demand side: at present, it is still in the off-season of coal consumption, the peak summer season has not yet come, and the daily consumption of the power plant is still low. In the later stage, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in the second half of the year will bring pressure on environmental protection and safety supervision, and production may be subject to certain restrictions. In addition, the EU ban on Russian coal will also bring a reduction in imports. In addition, the Political Bureau has made requirements for steady growth in infrastructure, real estate and other industries. The resumption of work and production in Shanghai is imminent, coupled with the start of procurement demand for peak summer, the demand for electricity is expected to rebound.
Coal coke steel industry chain: this week, coke was weak and coke coal was stable, and the operating rate of steel plant continued to increase
Coke: coke prices fell this week. In terms of supply, the epidemic situation improved, the transportation capacity recovered, and the logistics turnover accelerated, but the coke price fell, and the production enthusiasm of the coke plant decreased slightly; In terms of demand, the operating rate of steel mills across the country increased this week. After several rounds of replenishment, the current demand of steel mills is not strong. Coking coal: Port coking coal prices were flat this week. Supply side: the coal mines that stopped production due to the impact of the accident resumed production, the output rebounded, and the ring ratio of imported coal from Russia and Mongolia increased slightly; Demand side: the operating rate of coking plant is stable, and the demand for some kinds of coal increases. Later judgment: China's output of coking coal has no significant increase and there is no supply guarantee policy. Affected by the epidemic and transportation capacity, even if the amount of imported coal from Russia and Mongolia is limited under zero tariff, China's tight supply state is difficult to change; On the demand side, with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the force of the steady growth policy, real estate and infrastructure will drive the demand for coking coal in the upstream to rebound, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound.
Risk tip: there is a downside risk of economic growth, a risk that the epidemic recovery is less than expected, and a risk of accelerated substitution of new energy
