This week’s view: “the 14th five year plan” UHV construction is worth looking forward to
The construction of UHV in the 14th five year plan is expected to be significantly improved. According to the report of China Energy News on January 11, China will launch a new round of UHV construction on a large scale this year. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the State Grid will plan to build the UHV project “24 AC and 14 DC”, with a total investment of 380 billion yuan, of which 13 UHV lines are planned to be started in 2022. According to statistics, at present, China has built “15 AC and 18 DC” UHV lines and “2 AC and 2 DC” UHV lines under construction, which are mainly divided into three construction peaks in 2011-2013, 2014-2016 and 2018-2020, during which 5 / 13 / 11 UHV lines are approved respectively. Therefore, according to the current report, the construction scale of UHV in China is expected to be significantly increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At the same time, with the gradual implementation of large clean energy bases, the construction progress of supporting UHV lines is expected to be significantly accelerated.
UHV is expected to become an important structural increment of power grid investment in the 14th five year plan. It is suggested to focus on the links with high procurement amount and excellent market pattern. According to our statistics, the average investment of DC / AC UHV lines built or under construction in China is 23.4 billion yuan / 12.1 billion yuan respectively, involving many links. In the State Grid UHV bidding procurement, the procurement amount of iron tower, conductor and ground wire, transformer, converter valve, combined electrical appliances, reactor, insulator and other equipment accounts for a relatively high proportion. Among them, the market pattern of transformer, converter valve, combined electrical appliances, reactor and other links is more concentrated, and the average bid winning amount of a single manufacturer is higher, which is expected to fully benefit from the acceleration of UHV construction, It is recommended to focus on Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Henan Pinggao Electric Co.Ltd(600312) , Xi’An Peri Power Semiconductor Converting Technology Co.Ltd(300831) and other related subjects.
Market review this week: the power equipment sector led the rise in the second week of 2022
The power equipment sector rose 2.1% this week, higher than 4.1% of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, of which battery performance was the best (+ 5.4%) and wind power equipment performance was relatively poor (- 3.4%).
Industrial chain tracking: the prosperity of lithium battery industry chain continues, and the price of photovoltaic industry chain tends to stabilize
Lithium battery: the downstream demand boom was superimposed, and the shortage of some raw materials continued. In January 2021, the overall price of lithium battery industry chain remained high, and the lithium iron phosphate cathode material further increased.
Photovoltaic: the overall price of the photovoltaic industry chain tends to be stable this week. The inventory clearing of components since November 2021 is coming to an end. The production scheduling of components is significantly improved in January 2022, and the prices of silicon wafers and batteries are strongly supported. With the overall slowdown of downstream purchasing rhythm before the Spring Festival, it is expected that the price of the industrial chain will remain relatively stable. With the gradual release of new silicon production capacity from 2022, the terminal installation demand is expected to rise rapidly.
Risk tips: changes in new energy industry policies, supply chain bottlenecks lead to lower than expected demand, intensified market competition leads to decline in industry profitability, etc
