This week’s view:
Planting industry chain: according to Xinhua news agency, this year, the state continues to implement the minimum purchase price policy for wheat and rice in some main production areas, and the minimum purchase price level of wheat, early indica rice, medium and late indica rice and japonica rice has been comprehensively improved. The minimum purchase prices of wheat, early indica rice, medium and late indica rice and japonica rice this year were 115 yuan, 124 yuan, 129 yuan and 131 yuan per 50kg respectively, an increase of 2 yuan, 2 yuan, 1 yuan and 1 yuan respectively over the previous year, the State Food and Reserve Administration said on the 19th. Summer grain is mainly wheat, accounting for about 1 / 4 of the annual output. It is estimated that the purchase volume in peak season is about 130 billion kg, which is roughly equivalent to the perennial level. The State Food and Reserve Administration recently issued a notice jointly with relevant departments, calling for raising awareness, strengthening measures, optimizing services, strengthening monitoring and early warning, and strict law enforcement and supervision; Subsequently, a national summer grain and oil purchase video conference was held to mobilize and redeploy. It is expected that the purchase of summer grain will still be dominated by market-oriented purchase. It is unlikely to launch the implementation plan of the minimum purchase price on a large scale, and the purchase volume is expected to increase steadily. The State Grain and reserve administration requires that the bottom line of farmers’ “growing grain and selling it” be firmly held. All localities should take multiple measures to carry out market-oriented acquisitions in accordance with the requirements of the same responsibility of the party and government, and guide diversified subjects to actively enter the market; Relevant enterprises should earnestly fulfill the main responsibility of the implementation of the minimum purchase price policy, pay close attention to the implementation of the plan and give full play to the role of supporting the policy; The State Food and reserve administration will carry out investigation and supervision, coordinate with relevant parties to solve the difficulties and problems existing in the acquisition, and seriously investigate and deal with violations of laws and regulations. The overall increase of the minimum purchase price of summer grain will help protect the interests of farmers in grain planting, improve the enthusiasm of grain production, improve the enthusiasm of grain planting, drive the high prosperity of the planting industry chain, and the seed related enterprises will continue to benefit. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
The perennial root of sugarcane is three years in China, but five to seven years in Brazil and Australia. This is the reason why the overall supply of sugar was relatively sufficient in the past and the price of sugar did not rise for many years, but the cycle will only be late and will not be absent. 2022 has been six years away from the high point of the previous cycle. Superimposed on the higher than expected rise of oil prices and the large release of global currencies, as well as the frequent occurrence of global extreme climate caused by sunspot movement in recent years, a new upward cycle of sugar has begun. In terms of target selection, the stable target focuses on recommending Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) , the leader of China’s sugar industry, and the flexible target Nanning Sugar Industry Co.Ltd(000911) is expected to benefit fully.
In addition, we continue to recommend chemical stocks with a valuation of only 10 times Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) . The elasticity of our new ammonia production capacity is expected to come from the production performance of lysine at the end of 2021. In the long run, the monosodium glutamate and amino acid industries are limited by the new capacity under the background of carbon neutralization, and the valuation center is expected to rise.
Pig breeding: according to the data of zhuyitong, the average price of pigs nationwide this week was 15.72 yuan / kg, an increase of 2.80% on a weekly basis. Pig prices have risen for five consecutive weeks. The average weekly price of pigs in Guangdong Province has risen to 18.40 yuan / kg. It has been 20 days since the implementation of the no adjustment policy on May 1. We expect its support for local pig prices to gradually weaken. Since May 18, pig prices in Guangdong Province have shown a downward trend. Due to the optimistic price of pigs in the second half of the year, secondary fattening has sprung up again recently. It is difficult for slaughtering enterprises to grab pigs with slaughtering enterprises. Although slaughtering enterprises intend to reduce the price, the effect is not obvious. On May 17, huashangchu again issued the notice on the purchase and storage of the eighth batch of reserved pork, which continued to give market confidence. The overall pig price continued to rise this week. However, from the perspective of demand, the weather turned hot in the second quarter and entered the off-season of pork consumption; Affected by the epidemic, the economic environment is poor and the pressure of consumption growth is great. On the whole, the supply of pigs is still relatively loose. We expect that although the price of pigs rebounded gradually in the second quarter, the increase range is limited under the influence of many factors. The choice of specific targets to choose from among among the specific targets is to be recommended in turn for the selection of specific targets, with the following to be recommended in turn: the0 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 8 , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , etc. are expected to benefit fully.
Risk tips
The recovery process of pig production capacity is less than expected, the product sales is less than expected, and the commercialization process of GM is less than expected.
