In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate in Shanghai fell by 84.51% month on month, and the average price of Chile’s export to China doubled to 53800 US dollars / ton month on month
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, in April, China’s lithium carbonate import volume was 576268 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 35.76% and a month on month decrease of 47.86%. The import volume decreased significantly in a single month. It was mainly due to the blockade of the epidemic situation, which made the imported maritime ships unable to enter the port according to the established time. In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate in Shanghai was 148006 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 69.36% and a month on month decrease of 84.51%. The import volume fell sharply, which was the lowest in nearly 20 months. According to Chilean customs data, Chile exported 1930130 tons of lithium carbonate in April, including 1217923 tons of lithium carbonate exported to China, a month on month increase of 93.84%, a year-on-year increase of 6.19%, accounting for 63.10%. In April, China imported lithium carbonate from Chile, most of which had not actually arrived in the port due to shipping cycle and other reasons. In April, the average price of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was US $5378093/t, with a month on month increase of 98.84% and a year-on-year increase of 923.01%. China’s lithium carbonate importing enterprises will not be able to avoid the rapid rise of the use cost of lithium carbonate in Chile.
Lithium hydroxide exports decreased slightly month on month in April, and about 95% were shipped to Japan and South Korea
In April, China’s lithium hydroxide export volume was 571114 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.08% and a month on month decrease of 1.48%. The export provinces of lithium hydroxide are mainly Jiangxi Province and Sichuan Province, which are not affected by the Yangtze River Delta epidemic. In addition, the overseas demand for lithium hydroxide continues to rise, and the overseas supply of lithium hydroxide is tight, which supports the booming export market of lithium hydroxide. In April, the average export price of lithium hydroxide was 205900 yuan / ton respectively, an increase of 13.90% month on month. From January to April, China’s lithium hydroxide exports totaled 2327000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.30%, maintaining a relatively stable growth trend. In April, China exported 571114 tons of lithium hydroxide, and Asian countries (including Saudi Arabia in West Asia) totaled 547514 tons, accounting for 95.86%, a decrease of 0.99pct month on month; 236 tons were exported to Europe, accounting for 4.19%, with a month on month increase of 0.99pct; Japan and South Korea, which accounted for the largest proportion in April, exported 203805 tons and 340209 tons respectively, accounting for 35.69% and 59.57% of the total exports respectively, with changes of – 3.44% and + 2.40% respectively.
Hedland port exported 39700 tons of lithium concentrate in April, and the export volume fell month on month
According to the official data of Port Hedland, Australia, in April 2022, Port Hedland shipped 39664 tons of lithium concentrate, a year-on-year decrease of 33.75% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.78%. Among them, 20498 tons were shipped to China, a year-on-year decrease of 24.08% and a month on month decrease of 51.82%; The 19166 tons shipped to South Korea decreased by 41.70% year-on-year and increased by 100% month on month. The total production of mguanggu’s and wongguns’s mines is expected to be 14 million tons in 2023, which is expected to be lower than the planned production of mlgguns’s and nygguns’s mines in 2023. The export of concentrate from wogina port in Australia is planned to restart in July, but the actual output of concentrate from wogina port remains to be observed.
Investment advice
In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate in China decreased by 35.76% year-on-year and 47.86% month on month. The import volume in a single month fell significantly, including 148006 tons of lithium carbonate in Shanghai, a year-on-year decrease of 69.36% and 84.51% month on month. The import volume fell sharply, the lowest in nearly 20 months. Mainly due to the blockade of the epidemic, the imported maritime ships could not enter the port at the set time. According to Chilean customs data, Chile exported 12200 tons of lithium carbonate to China in April, with a month on month increase of 93.84% and a year-on-year increase of 6.19%, accounting for 63.10% of Chile’s total exports. It is expected that the ports in the Yangtze River Delta will return to normal in the future. In April, the average price of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was US $5378093/t, with a month on month increase of 98.84% and a year-on-year increase of 923.01%. China’s lithium carbonate importing enterprises will not be able to avoid the rapid rise of the use cost of lithium carbonate in Chile. Hedland port exported 39700 tons of lithium concentrate in April, a year-on-year decrease of 33.75% and a month on month decrease of 6.78%. Among them, 20498 tons of lithium concentrate were shipped to China, a year-on-year decrease of 24.08% and a month on month decrease of 51.82%. Hedland port is the concentrate outlet port of three mines, mtpilgangoora, mtngungaju and mtwodgina. It is expected that the total output guidelines of the two projects under pls will be lowered again in 2022. The actual ramp up to production after the restart of mtwodgina remains to be seen. Finally, whether Hedland port can become an incremental port for Australia’s concentrate export this year remains to be tracked. In 2022, the increment of global lithium resources is limited, and the prices of lithium concentrate and lithium salt imported from abroad have risen sharply. Having control over upstream resources is particularly important in the current and future global industrial chain competition, especially under the geopolitical risk of seizing global key mineral resources. We suggest that you pay attention to the enterprises integrating upstream and downstream, and [ Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ] which is promoting the 2.5 million T / a lithium ore concentration project in yuanyangba; Lijiagou spodumene mining and dressing project is under construction. In the future, [ Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) ] will work with Dongchuan energy investment to integrate and develop lithium resources in Ganzi and Aba Prefecture; There are abundant reserves of lepidolite resources, and [ Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) ] for the exploration and mining of Xikeng lepidolite mine is being handled; The beneficiaries include [ Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ] that the greenbushes mine has been increasing production in the next five years and can achieve large-scale production through OEM.
Risk tips
1) the development progress of lithium concentrate is less than expected;
2) the supply and demand of lithium salt have improved significantly, and the price of lithium salt has dropped rapidly
3) rapid expansion of lithium concentrate supply capacity in Australia.
