\u3000\u30001. Recommended combination
\u3000\u3000 Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) 、 Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) 、 Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) 、 Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) 、 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) 、 Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) 、 Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) 、 Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) 、 Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) 、 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) 、 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) 、 Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) 、 Shareate Tools Ltd(688257)
\u3000\u30002. Key investment points
Photovoltaic equipment: strong certainty in 2022, and the recent correction is a good layout point
Silicon wafer equipment: in 2021, the whole market will expand production by about 150gw, mainly new production capacity. The market is worried that the expansion of silicon wafer production will come to an end, and the orders of equipment manufacturers will decline year-on-year in 2022. However, the renewal cycle of stock capacity will be released in 2022-2023 - that is, small size replaces large size, there is no excess silicon wafer capacity, and there is still less advanced capacity. Battery equipment: the dispute over the technical route has entered a differentiation period - we expect that the single w manufacturing cost of hjt will level with perc by the end of 2022. In 2022, hjt will expand its production by about 30GW, and the expansion of TOPCON will depend on the cost reduction curve of hjt. Component equipment: the equipment link with the most logical iteration - all iterations of technology shall be summarized in the component link. The expansion of component production in 2021 did not exceed expectations, but Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) with the increase of market share from 60% to 90%, orders increased rapidly. With the gradual decline of silicon material price in 2022, downstream component enterprises will expand production more actively. In addition, new technologies such as slicing, smbb and multi slicing will bring a new update cycle similar to the 210 large-size trigger point in 2021. Heat field: the forever falling heat field price does not conflict with the stable profit of the head leader. The essence of photovoltaic is to reduce cost and increase efficiency. The thermal field uses carbon fiber to replace graphite & two waves of large-scale cost reduction technology iteration to help the non silicon cost of long crystal link to reduce rapidly. From 2015 to 2020, Longtou Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) will gradually increase its market share and maintain its profitability by transferring profits to customers with the help of the declining single ton price every year. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the decline of heat field price caused by the subsequent decline of carbon fiber price. Heat field enterprises can effectively reduce costs. Investment suggestions: focus on Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) for battery equipment, and pay attention to Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ; Silicon wafer link Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ; Component link recommendation Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; Recommended Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) for thermal field.
Construction machinery: the sales volume of excavator in 2021 was + 5% year-on-year, focusing on the opportunity of Q1 steady growth in 2022
In December 2021, the year-on-year - 24% of excavator sales was better than CME's expectation, the decline narrowed month on month, and the export increased rapidly. In December 2021, the sales volume of excavators was 24038 units, with a year-on-year increase of - 23.8%, slightly higher than CME's previous expectation (- 28.64%), and the month on month decrease narrowed (November year-on-year decrease of - 36.6%). Among them, 8615 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 104.6% and a month-on-month increase of + 34.0%. In December 2021, the central economic work conference set the tone of "steady growth". From the government work reports released by various localities and the 2022 work plan released by local development and reform commissions, actively promoting the project construction and ensuring the "good start" of investment in the first quarter has become a key task. According to incomplete statistics of China Securities Journal, from January 4 to 6, the announced total investment in major projects has exceeded 3 trillion yuan. The first half of 2022 is the stage of forming physical workload of special bond funds. In 2021, Q1 infrastructure investment increased by only 6% compared with the same period in 2019. We are concerned about the possibility that Q1 infrastructure growth may exceed expectations. In addition, real estate in some regions is relaxed and we are concerned about the opportunities of construction machinery industry under the background of steady growth. Recommendation: leading engine factory [ Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ] [ Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ] [ Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) ], upstream core parts [ Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ]
Power exchange equipment: the power exchange mode welcomes the rapid development, and the equipment suppliers give priority to benefit
With the gradual improvement of China's policies, many parties can benefit from the power exchange mode. 2022 is the first year of large-scale power exchange station, and the power exchange equipment manufacturers benefit the most. The core equipment of the power station is charge and discharge equipment, detection equipment and automation equipment. In terms of value, the unit investment of passenger car power exchange equipment is about 2.6 million yuan and that of commercial vehicle power exchange equipment is about 4.2 million yuan. We expect that in 2025, more than 16000 new power stations will be added, and the investment in new equipment will exceed 60 billion yuan. Investment suggestions: it is recommended to pay attention to Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Csg Smart Science&Technology Co.Ltd(300222) , Inventronics (Hangzhou) Inc(300582) .
General automation: the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the intelligent manufacturing and Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry plan, and localization is expected to accelerate. The Ministry of industry and information technology jointly issued the intelligent manufacturing and Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry development plan in the 14th five year plan, which requires the vigorous development of intelligent manufacturing industry and industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry. (1) Intelligent Manufacturing: by 2025, 70% of manufacturing enterprises are required to basically realize digitization, and the market satisfaction rates of intelligent manufacturing equipment and industrial software exceed 70% and 50% respectively. (2) Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : during the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is required to promote the comprehensive performance of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) core parts and complete machine to achieve a breakthrough, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial revenue has an average annual growth rate of more than 20%, and build a number of leading enterprises with international competitiveness.
We are optimistic about the acceleration of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) localization and the rapid growth of domestic leaders. China's industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry is still in a critical period of transformation and upgrading. It still lags behind Japan, South Korea and other developed countries in terms of self-made rate of key parts and localization rate of high-end products. Policy support will further accelerate the localization of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry, and domestic leaders are expected to enter a fast and long-term development. Investment suggestions: reducer recommended Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) , Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ; Tool recommendations Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ; Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) recommended Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ; Machine tools are recommended to be Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) .
Machine vision industry: Changpo heavy snow track under the general trend of intelligent manufacturing
China's machine vision is developing rapidly. It is a thick snow track on Changpo. ① From 2016 to 2019, the global machine vision market scale CAGR reached 18%; China's machine vision started late, but the growth rate is higher than the global level, with CAGR reaching 35% from 2015 to 2019. ② As the world's largest manufacturing country, China's machine vision penetration is low and has great growth space. China industry information network predicts that the scale of China's machine vision industry is expected to reach 19.7 billion yuan in 2023 and 17.6% CAGR in 2019-2023.
The profit level of machine vision industry is excellent, and local enterprises are in the ascendant. ① China's machine vision has formed a complete industrial chain, and relevant enterprises cover two categories: parts suppliers and integrated developers; ② The parts enterprises in the middle reaches of machine vision generally have strong profitability, and the gross profit margin of leading enterprises is maintained at more than 70% all year round. ③ A large number of funds poured in to promote the rapid development of local enterprises. Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Jutze Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300802) , as well as Ling Yunguang and Wayz Intelligent Manufacturing Technology Co.Ltd(688211) , which are about to be launched.
Risk warning: the downstream fixed asset investment is less than the market expectation; Cyclical fluctuations in the industry; The impact of the epidemic continues.
