\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Event:
On May 20, Byd Company Limited(002594) released the new model “seal” based on E platform 3.0 and its CTB battery body integration technology. Seal provides 4 models and 3 power combinations. The starting price of standard endurance version is 212800 yuan, and the endurance of CLTC is 550km; The price of the long-range rear drive version is 262800 yuan, and the CLTC has a endurance of 700km; The price of 4WD performance version is 289800 yuan, the energy consumption per 100 kilometers is 12.7kwh, and the endurance of CLTC is 650km. In addition to the CTB technology for the first time, the seal is also equipped with ITAC intelligent torque control system for the first time to improve the upper limit of control; At the same time, it can charge more than 300km in 15 minutes through the high-voltage platform.
CTB can realize multiple upgrades of performance, endurance and safety while reducing cost
Byd Company Limited(002594) ctb technology integrates the blade battery into the body structure, and the upper shell of the battery is directly used as the interior floor, which reduces the weight of the body, improves the torsional stiffness and achieves better handling performance; In addition, due to the reduction of the use of aluminum structural parts, the space to accommodate the battery cell is relatively improved, which can reduce the cost of the whole vehicle and improve the energy density of the battery at the same time. CTB structure can also realize the evolution of safety. The safety of front impact structure can be improved by 50% and that of side impact structure can be improved by 45%.
New members of e-platform 3.0 are released and are optimistic about the long-term incubation capacity of high-quality platform
The price band of seal basically coincides with the main models of Xiaopeng P7, and it is expected to compete with Tesla Model 3 (priced at 278000368000 yuan, CLTC has a life of 556675km) and velai et5 (priced at 328000386000 yuan, CLTC has a life of 550700km) with higher prices at the same level, so as to continue to expand the brand influence in the market of more than 200000. Since the dolphin model of ocean net, which was also built based on E platform 3.0, came into the market, its monthly sales have risen rapidly to more than 10000, which fully reflects the strong product power of E platform 3.0, which is “safe, efficient, intelligent and aesthetic”, as well as the high attention and recognition of the market brought by the younger marketing model of ocean net. We believe that with the listing of seals and subsequent sea lions, the company’s product sales will continue to increase. At the same time, the cost reduction benefits brought by the standardized structure will also improve the company’s overall profitability.
The sales volume rose against the trend in April, strongly highlighting the leader α
According to the data of the passenger car Federation, the retail sales volume of China’s passenger car market in April was – 35.5% year-on-year and – 34.0% month on month; Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by + 78.4% year-on-year and – 36.5% month on month Byd Company Limited(002594) relying on the perfect supply chain integration ability and strong product strength, the sales volume of passenger cars in April reached 105000, with a year-on-year increase of + 136.5% and a month on month increase of + 1.1%, occupying a market share of about 10%, ranking first among manufacturers. The company’s long-term adherence to the independent and controllable supply chain shows more value under the influence of complex external environment, which provides a strong support for the gradual realization of the annual performance.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 372734/499064/648661 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 73.63/120.75/18.072 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 2.53/4.15/6.21 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to about 81.05% CAGR in three years and 114x / 69x / 46x PE respectively. Using the segment valuation method, we believe that the reasonable market value of the company in 2022 is about 997474 billion yuan, and the corresponding target price is 369.1 yuan, which has great room for improvement compared with the current one. Considering the company’s fast-growing performance and good competitiveness, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tips: 1) the delivery of new models is less than the expected risk; 2) The risk of intensified industry competition; 3) Upstream raw material price rise risk; 4) The risk of expanding production is less than expected.
