\u3000\u3000 Lionco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603669) (603669)
Core view
Event: on January 12, the company announced that it planned to subscribe 60 million yuan of its own funds to invest in capital great health industry (Beijing) fund for promising enterprises in the field of medical and health. The fund manager is Huagai capital, a famous private equity investment fund, and other participants (limited partners) include Zhejiang Conba Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600572) pharmaceutical, Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) and other well-known enterprises. This foreign investment will help Lingkang pharmaceutical to achieve sustainable development while consolidating and developing the company’s main business.
Injection is subdivided into leaders with rich product reserves: the company integrates pharmaceutical R & D, production, sales and medical services, and its leading products cover three fields: parenteral nutrition drugs, anti infective drugs and digestive system drugs. According to wind pharmaceutical data, as of Q3 in 2021, the company ranked first in the sales market share of alanyl glutamine for parenteral nutrition injection; The sales market share of ceftizoxime sodium for injection, cefmendozyme sodium for injection and Omeprazole Sodium for injection for digestive system drugs ranks among the top in the industry; In the field of antidotes and auxiliary drugs, the sales market share of flumazenil injection ranks second in the industry.
At present, the company has 114 varieties and 202 drug production approval documents, 55 varieties have been listed in the national medical insurance catalogue, and many generic drugs and consistency evaluation varieties need to be implemented, covering the fields of major diseases such as anti-tumor, hepatobiliary and cardiovascular diseases. Among them, the company’s reserved products, such as huperzine A for injection, are exclusive varieties in China for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease, with a large market space; In addition, large quantities of nimergoline for injection, labetalol hydrochloride for injection, heparin calcium for injection, gastrodin for injection and acetylcysteine for injection are expected.
After volume purchase, the company’s net profit is stable and the medical service industry chain is upgraded and extended: affected by policies such as injection consistency evaluation and volume purchase, the company speeds up the development of chemical agent business, cuts into other products / fields complementary and differentiated to the company’s pipeline through investment and M & a, and enriches the product pipeline, The company has passed the consistency evaluation of omeprazole sodium for injection and will maintain the company’s core competitiveness for a long time; At the same time, the company has received the relevant approval documents of alanyl glutamine injection, which is the first generic drug approved according to the new registration classification of chemical drugs (deemed to have passed the consistency evaluation of generic drugs), which helps the company maintain its market leadership; In addition, the company will invest and acquire upstream API enterprises, and fully intervene in medical services through the supply chain distribution of West China Hospital and Shangjin hospital, forming an integrated model of raw materials + preparations + services.
Profit forecast: affected by the epidemic situation in the past two years, the company’s revenue of injection products will decline sharply in 2020. It is expected to remain stable in 2021 and resume growth in 2022. At the same time, it is expected to thicken the company’s performance by fully involving medical services through the supply chain distribution of West China Hospital and Shangjin hospital. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will achieve a total operating revenue of RMB 1.001/12.01/1381 billion, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 135/165/300 million, a diluted EPS of 0.18/0.23/0.42, a corresponding PE of 50.14/39.92/22.02, and be rated as “overweight”.
Risk warning: product sales are not as expected; Risk of intensified industry competition; Macroeconomic downside risk.
