\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (002850)
Key investment points
The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 to be RMB 145-195 million, with a month on month ratio of – 6.78% – 25.26%, in line with market expectations. The company expects that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 520-570 million, with a year-on-year increase of 191.09% to 219.08%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be RMB 145-195 million, with a year-on-year increase of 81% – 144% and a month-on-month increase of – 6.78% – 25.26%, corresponding to a median value of RMB 170 million, with a month-on-month increase of 9%, which is in line with market expectations. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was RMB 495-544 million, a year-on-year increase of 205.43% to 236.34%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company was RMB 139-189 million in 2021q4, a month-on-month increase of – 7% – 26%.
Q4 we expect the shipment volume to increase by 20% month on month and over 120% in the whole year. The output of Q4 downstream customers increased by 10-20% month on month and continued to rise. We expect the revenue of Q4 company to be 1.4-1.5 billion yuan, with a month on month increase of 20%. We expect the annual revenue to be about 4.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 120-130%. In 2021, the company’s revenue increment mainly comes from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , China’s second-line battery enterprises, LG, etc. the company has in-depth cooperation with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and has supporting factories in Ningde and Yibin. We expect that the company’s share in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will recover to 50% in 2021 and will maintain this share in the future; At the same time, China’s second-line battery enterprises AVIC, Yiwei, honeycomb, Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) have increased significantly, basically 1-2 times. The company is the main supplier, and some are independent suppliers; The company is the main supplier of supporting domestic Tesla 21700 battery cylindrical structural parts for LG, which will double in 2021. In terms of profitability, we expect that the company’s Q4 profit margin can still maintain 10-12%, mainly due to the improvement of production efficiency and automation, and the company’s layout of upstream resources magnesium and aluminum offsets the impact of the rise of some raw materials, so it has strong profitability pressure resistance.
In the past 22 years, the company had a large overseas market, and the large cylindrical battery brought new increment. 4680 large cylinder is an important industrialization direction. We expect to partially replace the share of soft pack battery, and it is expected to start industrialization in 2022. The company has a leading layout in the field of large cylindrical structural parts, and has been designated by major customers in China and internationally. We expect a large volume in 2022. The increase in the penetration rate of large cylindrical batteries will expand the market space of structural parts on the one hand, and increase the single GWH value on the other hand. While Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) is a leading technology in this field, it will fully benefit. In terms of customers, the company will be put into operation in three major bases in Europe in 2022, supporting Samsung Hungary factory, northvolt Sweden factory and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Germany factory. At the same time, the company’s products will be exported to the U.S. market in 2022, which will contribute significantly to the increase, and the expansion of overseas market will accelerate in 2023.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in view of the continuous high outlook of the industry and the huge capacity acceleration planning of the company, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 550 / 12.3 / 1.93 billion (the original forecast was RMB 550 / 11.2 / 1.68 billion), the corresponding PE was 69x / 31x / 20x, gave 50xpe in 2022, and maintained the “buy” rating in response to the target price of RMB 263.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, the policy is less than expected, and the competition is intensified.
