\u3000\u3000 Vt Industrial Technology Co.Ltd(300707) (300707)
Key investment points
Event:
The performance forecast for 2021 is released, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 45-55 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42% - 73%; The net profit after deduction of non parent company was 42-52 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46% - 81%.
Benefiting from the substantial growth of stamping parts of new energy vehicles, the performance in the fourth quarter of 2021 accounts for about 50% of the whole year. According to the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to reach 19-29 million yuan (the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2020 is negative 5 million yuan), accounting for 42% - 53% of the whole year's performance. Benefiting from the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales, the company's stamping revenue (about 70% of the revenue is expected to come from a global leading new energy vehicle enterprise in 2021) has increased significantly. The income of traditional stamping die business is stable. The company has strengthened internal control and receivables collection, and its comprehensive profitability has been improved in 2021.
The profit of traditional main business is expected to reverse; Stamping parts / battery box / lithium battery equipment to build long-term growth power
1. Stamping parts: the compound growth rate of revenue in the next three years is nearly 100%, and the long-term space is broad. 1) The sales volume of important stamping parts customers increased rapidly; 2) The customer is expected to supply only Chinese factories to global factories; 3) The supporting value of single vehicle has the potential to double; 4) With the increase of welding proportion of stamping parts, there is room for improvement of profitability; 5) Strengthen the sales team of stamping parts and continuously develop new customers.
2. Power battery box: it is expected to be large in the second half of 2022, and the subsequent new fixed points can be expected. 1) The project fixed point of VF battery box assembly of a vehicle model has been obtained; 2) The market space is broad, and the market scale of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery box is expected to be 30-40 billion yuan in 2025; 3) Actively explore new customers of power battery and vehicle factory. 3. Lithium battery equipment: Ningbo Jiuju (29% shares held by Wuxi Weitang Industrial Investment Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the listed company) is actively developing some new energy equipment.
4. Traditional stamping dies: basically exported to famous global auto parts manufacturers, with a compound growth rate of more than 10% in the next three years. 1) Molds are related to the number of models, and the number of new energy models has increased significantly in recent years; 2) Issue convertible bonds to realize the full category coverage of molds; 3) The sharp rise in freight and the impact of exchange rate appreciation are great.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.5/1.1/160 billion respectively, with a compound growth rate of 72% in three years; The corresponding PE from 2021 to 2023 is 57 / 27 / 17 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips:
The production expansion progress of stamping parts is less than expected, the competition pattern becomes worse and the risk of technical iteration; The newly signed order of battery box is less than expected; The R & D Progress of new energy equipment is less than expected.
