\u3000\u3000 Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (300763)
Key investment points
Event: the company issued a performance forecast for 2021: the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 455-535 million in 2021, an increase of 43% ~ 68% at the same time, deducting a non net profit of RMB 380-460 million, an increase of 36% ~ 65% at the same time. Corresponding to 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 95-172 million, with a year-on-year ratio of – 12% ~ + 59%, a month-on-month ratio of – 24% ~ + 38%, deducting non net profit of RMB 80-160 million, with a year-on-year ratio of – 8% ~ + 84%, a month-on-month ratio of – 19% ~ + 62%. In view of the fact that the installed capacity of Chinese household in 2021q4 greatly exceeds the market expectation, and the company is the leader of Chinese household, we expect the performance to be above the median, so the operating performance in 2021q4 will increase by 30% + and 40% + respectively.
In 2021, the volume of grid connected inverters will increase and the profit will decrease. In 2022, we expect that the company will ship 750000-800000 sets of grid connected inverters in 2021. Based on the 19kw power of a single set, the shipment will be about 14-15gw, an increase of about 60% at the same time, of which 220000-260000 sets will be shipped in 2021q4, an increase of 5-24% at the same time and an increase of 23-45% at the same time. In the case of chip shortage, the shipment will still increase significantly month on month. From 2022q1, the company will introduce new overseas chip suppliers, and 2022q4 will introduce domestic suppliers, which will greatly enhance the supply guarantee capacity. At the same time, the demand for distributed photovoltaic is strong. We expect that the company’s shipment volume will continue to increase significantly in 2022, and the gross profit margin of inverters will increase significantly. The reasons are as follows: 1) at the beginning of 2022, the company’s overseas sales price of inverters will increase by about 10%; 2) The company plans to increase the proportion of overseas sales from 50% in 2021 to about 70%; 3) The company has signed the 2022 long sea waybill with the shipping company, which reduces the freight pressure.
The shipment of energy storage inverter still maintains high-speed growth and continues to develop in 2022. We expect that the company will ship 30000-40000 energy storage inverters in 2021, which is about 0.3-0.4gw based on a single 10kW power, including 10000-20000 in 2021q4, with an increase of 11-122%. Most of the company’s energy storage inverters are exported to overseas markets, and the gross profit margin remains about 45%. In 2022, the company plans to have a capacity of 100000-200000 energy storage inverters, with sufficient orders on hand, and the energy storage business will usher in rapid growth in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the tight supply of raw materials and rising costs, we lowered the company’s profit in 2021. At the same time, we raised the profit forecast in 2022 and 2023 based on the enhancement of the company’s chip supply guarantee capacity, the improvement of overseas selling prices and the strength of energy storage business in 2022, We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be RMB 510 / 10.5 / 1.65 billion (the previous value is RMB 550 / 9.1 / 1.35 billion), a year-on-year increase of + 61% / + 106% / + 57%, corresponding to 112 / 55 / 35 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: sales volume is lower than expected, market competition intensifies, etc.
