\u3000\u3000 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481)
With the release of the performance forecast in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company has increased significantly
Today, the company issued the announcement on pre increase of performance in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 285-325 million, with a year-on-year increase of 107.40% – 136.50%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 will be 210-250 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 107.78% – 147.36%. Exceeded market expectations.
On the one hand, the company actively grasped the “double carbon” opportunity and increased the sales of energy-saving and water-saving products; On the other hand, as the leader of silicon material equipment, the company fully benefits from the increased demand for new energy equipment such as polysilicon reduction furnace driven by the expansion of photovoltaic silicon material production.
The fixed increase was approved, and the monocrystalline silicon project was accelerated
On January 10, 2022, the company’s application for non-public offering of A-Shares was approved by the CSRC. The total amount of funds raised by this fixed increase is expected to be no more than 3.488 billion yuan, of which 3 billion yuan will be used for the construction of 40gw monocrystalline silicon phase I Project (20GW) (the total investment scale of the project is 6.999 billion yuan).
According to the company’s reply to the announcement on fixed growth, it is expected that the company’s production capacity will be gradually increased in February this year, and strive to achieve an annual production capacity of 7gw; In June, the construction of the second single crystal plant was completed; It is expected to reach the production capacity of phase I 20GW silicon wafer in March next year.
Since October, the company has announced monocrystalline silicon business contracts with Changzhou Shunfeng, Jiangsu Xinchao, Atlas, Jiangsu Longheng, aixu, Runyang and other companies. It is expected that 32500 tons of monocrystalline silicon square ingots / rods and 4.65 billion monocrystalline silicon chips will be sold from 2022 to 2024. At the same time, large-scale silicon wafer products with Trina Solar and Chint are in the pilot stage. The company’s trial production capacity of monocrystalline silicon has been recognized by more and more downstream customers, and the scale of orders on hand may continue to increase.
There is no worry about the supply of raw materials, long sales orders are locked, and the company has obvious advantages in the shuffle stage. A successful breakthrough can be expected. With the technological change of photovoltaic industry, the decline of raw material prices and the elimination of backward silicon production capacity, the silicon link may usher in a new round of shuffle. At this stage, we believe that the company has three advantages:
1. Pack light. The company’s production capacity is large-size silicon wafer production capacity, and there is no inventory of small-size silicon wafers, and there is no pressure such as asset impairment.
2. Worry free silicon material supply. As the leader of polysilicon equipment, the company has a natural cooperative relationship with silicon material enterprises, and has certain advantages in silicon material supply. At present, the company has locked in the supply of more than 160000 tons of silicon material.
3. The production capacity is recognized by many downstream parties, and the sales long order is locked to ensure the performance. From the single crystal furnace equipment contract announced by the company, the total procurement of single crystal furnace exceeds 3 billion yuan, corresponding to the production capacity of more than 20GW single crystal silicon, and the production capacity is worry free. At the same time, the company has obtained orders from multiple customers, and the performance guarantee is sufficient.
Based on the above, we are optimistic about the long-term development of the company.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 288 million, RMB 666 million and RMB 1036 million respectively, corresponding to the current PE of 55x / 24x / 15x respectively, which will continue to be recommended.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downturn and market demand decline; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Risk of policy change in photovoltaic industry, etc.
