\u3000\u3000 Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (601155)
Event: on January 8, 2022, the company released the business briefing for the fourth quarter of 2021
In 2021, the company achieved a cumulative sales amount of 233.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and a cumulative sales area of 23.547 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.25%; The total completed area in the whole year is 32.903 million square meters (including 10.076 million square meters in the fourth quarter of 2021); The annual rental income of commercial operation segment was 8.639 billion yuan.
Comments: the completed area increased slightly, but not as planned, the sales scale contracted slightly, and the commercial operation continued to develop
1) in terms of completion, the actual completed area of the company in 2021 was 32.903 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and 76.3% of the planned completed construction area of 43.099 million square meters at the beginning of 2021 was completed. We believe that the main reasons why the actual completed area of the company did not reach the plan at the beginning of the year are the repeated epidemic of covid-19 and the tight liquidity of the real estate industry in the second half of 2021, which affected the construction progress and completion rhythm of the company.
2) in terms of sales, the company achieved contract sales of about 233.78 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 6.85%; The sales area was about 23.547 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.25%; The average sales price was 9927.9 yuan / flat, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%; From the perspective of marginal change, the company achieved contract sales of about 20.81 billion yuan in December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 33.0%; The sales area was about 2.584 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19.21%.
3) in terms of commercial operation, by the end of 2021, the company has held 115 opened Wuyue Plaza urban complexes (including 10 opened Wuyue Plaza exported by asset management). In 2021, the company's commercial operation segment realized tax included rental income of RMB 8.64 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 51.0%. We believe that the business operation sector will continue to make efforts, with obvious rent growth. The "Wuyue Plaza" brand moat has been built, with high popularity and reputation. In the follow-up, on the premise of "expanding China's circulation and improving residents\' consumption", the company's business operation sector will continue to make efforts and its importance in the company's value system will continue to increase.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: since the fourth quarter of 2021, the liquidity of the real estate industry has continued to repair, development loans and mortgage loans have continued to pick up, the central bank has comprehensively reduced the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points, and released 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds, which is better for the "leveraged and stable" private enterprise real estate; As it will take some time to recover the expectations of home buyers and the pessimism of the real estate industry, the current fierce competition in the industry and the downward pressure on sales scale and gross profit margin, we lowered the company's forecast net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 17.08 billion yuan, 19.89 billion yuan and 23.22 billion yuan, down 7.2%, 5.0% and 1.3% respectively; The current share price corresponds to the PE valuation of 4.1, 3.5 and 3.0 times from 2021 to 2023. The company's financial structure is sound, the risk of debt default is small, the two wheel drive builds a profit moat, and the commercial operation sector has increased significantly. With the enhancement of the expectation of interest rate reduction in the first quarter of 2022, the credit supply of residents\' improved housing mortgage loans is expected to be further supported, and the attention and confidence of the capital market in high-quality leading real estate enterprises will be further improved, The company's valuation has strong attraction and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the severity and duration of regulation policies in the real estate industry may exceed expectations; Sales progress is limited by bank loan concentration management or less than expected; The project construction and settlement progress may be less than expected.
