\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) (688180)
The innovation driven biopharmaceutical company has developed rapidly since its establishment. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) was established in 2012 and is committed to source innovation. Since its establishment, it has developed rapidly. The company has the first domestic PD-1 monoclonal antibody approved for listing in China. The successful listing of treprizumab reflects the company’s excellent drug R & D ability and execution ability; Overseas, this variety has been recognized by the FDA for four orphan drugs and two breakthrough therapies. Among them, the indications of nasopharyngeal carcinoma have been evaluated preferentially. It is expected to be approved for listing in Q2 in 2022, becoming the first PD-1 monoclonal antibody listed in the United States in China. In addition, the company has laid out a huge R & D pipeline in the fields of tumor immunotherapy, autoimmune diseases, metabolic diseases, covid-19 pneumonia and other diseases through endogenous R & D and extension cooperation, covering the forms of macromolecular and small molecule drugs.
PD-1 monoclonal antibody is expected to usher in the blowout period when the large indications are approved. The differentiated layout of adjuvant / neoadjuvant therapy will gradually realize its commercial value. PD-1 monoclonal antibody has a broad market prospect. China has been approved for second-line treatment of melanoma, second-line treatment of urothelial cancer and first / second-line and above treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. The first-line treatment of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer have been submitted to NDA and accepted. In terms of differentiated R & D layout, the company actively arranges adjuvant / neoadjuvant therapy for major indications such as lung cancer, liver cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, and China’s progress is leading. In terms of commercialization layout, the company employs Mr. Li Cong to be fully responsible for commercialization related work, which is expected to usher in a breakthrough; The company also granted the North American Equity of treprizumab to coherus, which is expected to cover more patient groups. Overall, the company’s multi-level R & D layout has gradually entered the commercial value realization period.
New targets, new molecules and new platforms are arranged, and the echelon of products under research in the fields of tumor immunity, autoimmunity, metabolism, covid-19 antiviral and so on is orderly. The company takes treprizumab as the cornerstone drug to comprehensively layout the IO field. At the same time, it is also actively layout the next-generation immunotherapy targets and new technologies, such as dual antibody platform, ADC drug R & D platform and siRNA drug R & D platform. At present, the company has BTLA monoclonal antibody, cd112r, tigit monoclonal antibody, PARP and other varieties in the field of tumor immunity, PCSK9, IL-17 and other varieties in the field of metabolism and autoimmunity. The company has multi-level layout in the anti-virus field of covid-19. Covid-19 neutralizing antibody has won orders from many governments, and small molecule oral drugs have been urgently authorized by Uzbekistan. Many products of the company are in the stage of clinical trial and preclinical development, and are expected to make steady progress in the research and development of innovative drugs.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company is the first tier innovative biopharmaceutical company in China, and the R & D pipeline is gradually entering the harvest period. In addition, js016 is a covid-19 neutralizing antibody jointly developed by the company and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Since 2021, the government orders of etesevimab monoclonal antibody and bamlanivimab + etesevimab double antibody combination have increased, which is expected to contribute significant cash income. We expect the company’s revenue in the 21st ~ 23rd years to be RMB 4.479/39.0/4.37 billion respectively. Based on the DCF valuation method, the target price of A-Shares is 83.4 yuan and the target price of H shares is 61.9 Hong Kong dollars, which is covered for the first time, and a / H shares are rated “buy” respectively.
Risk tips: risk of drug R & D failure, risk of product sales falling short of expectations, risk of product price reduction, risk of product substitution.
