Key investment points:
In order to make up for the gap of imported beer, China’s beer output has increased moderately in the past two years. However, excluding the import candidate factors, we believe that China’s beer consumption has been relatively weak in the past two years, showing a contraction trend as a whole.
The planning of the product structure of listed companies also affects the sales volume, that is, reducing the output of medium and low-end products and increasing the output of medium and high-end products, so as to improve the product structure and earn profits, which has become the consensus of listed beer companies.
In 2021, the total beer sales of listed beer companies reached 270332 million kiloliters, accounting for 75.88% of the production and sales of the whole industry. Among them, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) four national brands have 31%, 22%, 10% and 8% respectively in the Chinese market, accounting for 71% in total.
So far in 2017, the average product price of listed beer companies has enjoyed a significant cumulative increase, which is reflected in that the price has increased by a certain range every year, and the price increase is more significant than that in 2016. After 2017, the average ex factory price of beer of listed companies increased year after year, which is a reflection of the contraction of supply and the upgrading of product structure.
Beer “high-end” is a new direction of industry development proposed in recent two years. Led by large brand suppliers, it has become the consensus of brand beer manufacturers to enhance efficiency and strengthen the body through “high-end”. Compared with the regular growth from 2017 to 2020, the sales growth of medium and high-grade products of China Resources beer, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and other major companies in 2021 is more significant.
In 2021, the revenue of listed beer companies increased well, driven by both the recovery of consumption and the improvement of product structure. In 2021, the growth of beer sales of listed companies performed well, including both the factors of content increase and the contribution of product structure optimization.
In 2021, the cost input of listed beer companies generally decreased marginally. The cost control strategy adopted by listed companies to reduce the cost input or to deal with the rising cost; Or, after the supplier’s market is concentrated, the brand’s cost investment tends to be reduced compared with that in the competitive environment.
In the current stage of good sales performance and effective cost control, the shareholder return of beer sector has increased significantly compared with the past. The roe indicators of listed companies are differentiated, and the law of “the strong is always strong” is particularly prominent.
The beer sector has entered a downward trend since July 2021, and the downward trend has continued to this day. The higher valuation point of the beer sector has fallen sharply, but it is still relatively high in the food and beverage sector. The current valuation of beer listed companies is generally high, which basically reflects the company’s internal value and market expectation.
The beer industry is currently in a good period of development. We give the industry an investment rating of “synchronous market”, and recommend China Resources beer (0291hk), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) ( Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) ) and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ( Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ).
Risk tip: consumption repair is less than expected, and market pessimism is shrouded.
