Event:
The operation of the express industry in April and the operation data of express enterprises in April have been released.
① industry:
Volume: in April, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 7.48 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; The business volume of non local express delivery reached 6.428 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%.
Price: in April, the single ticket revenue of national express service enterprises was 9.90 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13% and a month on month increase of 3.29%; Among them, the single ticket income of remote express was 5.46 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.35% and a month on month increase of 0.92%.
② individual shares:
Business volume: 1.24 billion year-on-year decrease 4.6 billion year-on-year Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) completed 791 million business tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 7.68% Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) completed 1.132 billion business tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 19.37%.
Price: in April, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) single ticket revenue was 2.51 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.41% and a month on month increase of 1.21% Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) single ticket revenue was 2.57 yuan, an increase of 20.66% year-on-year and 0.39% month on month Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) single ticket revenue was 2.53 yuan, an increase of 24.02% year-on-year and a decrease of 2.32% month on month.
Key investment points:
Single ticket revenue rose year-on-year, the pattern improved and the logic remained unchanged
In April 2022, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) single ticket revenue was 2.51 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% and a month on month increase of 1.21%. Excluding the impact of rookie wrapping business, single ticket revenue was 2.44 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.43% and a month on month increase of 1.67% Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) single ticket revenue was 2.57 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.66% and a month on month increase of 0.39%. After excluding the impact of rookie wrapping business, single ticket revenue was 2.46 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.49% and a month on month increase of 1.23% Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) single ticket revenue was 2.53 yuan, an increase of 24.02% year-on-year and a decrease of 2.32% month on month. On a month on month basis, the single ticket revenue of Yuantong and Shentong has achieved positive growth on a month on month basis, which is mainly due to the impact of additional delivery fees charged by express companies for outlets in the epidemic area. On a year-on-year basis, the single ticket income of each enterprise maintained an upward trend, and the logic of pattern improvement remained unchanged.
The business volume continues to be under pressure, waiting for the demand rebound after the closure
The continuation of the epidemic containment policy interfered with the overall operation of the express industry. In April 2022, the business volume of the industry decreased by 11.9% year-on-year. At the level of individual stocks, all enterprises have been impacted by the epidemic in varying degrees, among which Yunda has been greatly impacted. The high proportion of business volume in East China and the impact of the epidemic in Shanxi transit center have reduced Yunda’s business volume by 19.37% to 1.132 billion votes year-on-year, with a market share of 15.13%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38 PCT; Yuantong and Shentong were also impacted. Yuantong’s business volume decreased by 4.83% year-on-year to 1.246 billion tickets, with a market share of 16.66%, a year-on-year increase of 1.26 PCT, and the market share rose to the second place; Shentong’s business volume decreased by 7.68% year-on-year to 791 million tickets, accounting for 10.57% of the market, with a year-on-year increase of 0.49 PCT. With the gradual achievement of the goal of clearing the social surface of Shanghai, the express industry is also on the road of steady recovery. With the promotion of the Baotong and smooth traffic policy, the throughput index of distribution centers of major express enterprises has gradually warmed up in mid and late April, waiting for the demand to rebound after the closure.
The epidemic situation does not hinder the long-term logic of the sector and continues to recommend the e-commerce express industry
The epidemic only affects the rhythm of the release of logistics demand and does not change the medium and long-term trend of the overall pattern of the industry to be good and the volume and price rise together. The excellent performance of enterprises in the first quarter has continuously verified the logic of pattern improvement. At present, the e-commerce express industry has entered a high-quality development stage focusing on the balance between profit and share. In the new stage, the profit elasticity of price contribution is far greater than the impact of business volume changes. It is suggested to actively grasp the investment opportunities brought by the gradual repair of cash flow and continuous improvement of profitability of the e-commerce express industry under the support of pattern improvement.
Industry rating and investment strategy
At present, the industry is disturbed by the short-term variables of the epidemic, but the pattern optimization of e-commerce express enterprises and the rising trend of roe remain unchanged. The sector logic continues to be verified and is optimistic about the sector investment opportunities of e-commerce express industry. Maintain the industry “recommended” rating.
Key recommended stocks Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) , Zhongtong express-sw, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120)
Risk tips: the risk of intensifying the price war, the risk that the prosperity of the industry is less than expected, the risk of M & A caused by upstream and downstream integration, the risk caused by changes in regulatory policies, the risk of warehouse explosion of express franchisees, and the risk that the performance of recommended companies does not meet expectations.
