Chile's proposal to nationalize mining rights was rejected, easing concerns about the stagnation of overseas investment expansion. At the constitutional assembly held in Chile on May 14, a reform plan to expand the "nationalization" of Chinese minerals in Chile was voted down, which alleviated the concerns of foreign mining enterprises about Chilean mining investment to a certain extent. In the cycle of mismatch between lithium resources and downstream demand, the rejection of the nationalization proposal will give a shot in the arm to overseas leading enterprises deeply cultivating Chile's salt lake resources. The 400000 ton lithium carbonate exploration and production quota contract previously provided to domestic and overseas enterprises at the end of 2021 is expected to restart bidding. Previously, Byd Company Limited(002594) won one of the contracts with an offer of US $121 million, but was suspended by the Chilean judicial department, However, the follow-up is expected to reopen. After the last 30000 tons of lithium carbonate are planned to be put into production, the other two are expected to be steadily eliminated.
Wodgina officially restarted the lithium shortage situation without changing, and the profits of the industrial chain continue to flow back to the upstream. It is optimistic that it will maintain a high boom throughout the year. In May, wodgina operated by marbl JV delivered the first lithium concentrate after the resumption of production of line 1. Under the urgency of completing the commissioning of the 25000 ton lithium hydroxide production line in phase I of kemerton plant jointly invested by them, wodgina's resumption progress is more urgent. According to the guidance of Alb's first quarterly report, line 2 is expected to be restarted at 22q3 to meet the raw material demand of kemerton. Although wodgina accelerates the restart, the shortage of lithium concentrate will continue. At present, the long-term price of 6% lithium concentrate in Q2 Western Australia has risen to more than 5000 US dollars / ton. We believe that the continuous shortage of lithium resources will boost the price of lithium ore to continue to rise. Pilbara will hold the second auction of lithium ore on May 24 or boost the price of lithium to jump again. Under the high price of battery grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, it will continue to fluctuate, Optimistic about the continuous return of industrial chain profits to the upstream.
Investment suggestion: we expect that the lithium resource market will continue to strengthen, the mismatch cycle of this round of supply and demand will exceed expectations, and the prices of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate are expected to remain high. When the promotion progress of overseas new supply is less than expected, we should pay more attention to the relevant listed companies with low development cost and high-quality lithium resources, who can obtain higher gross profit with lower cost in the price rise, Therefore, the performance elasticity is relatively large; In addition, China's listed companies with relevant resources have integrated the production and sales of lithium salt through lithium mining. With the continuous improvement of the new energy vehicle market, the end demand vehicle enterprises seek to extend upward and directly sign supply agreements with lithium salt manufacturers to reduce the cost of the industrial chain. The listed companies with relevant integrated layout are expected to continue to expand their market share by virtue of price advantages. In addition, pay attention to the growth opportunities of lithium battery industry chain brought by the continuous expansion of battery manufacturers' capacity under the high prospect of new energy vehicle industry. The promotion of downstream demand also drives the strong order demand of midstream battery material manufacturers. We can pay attention to the leading cathode material manufacturers with deep layout of high nickel ternary technology in cathode materials and obvious advantages in overseas business expansion, as well as the leading diaphragm manufacturers whose supply is still in short supply
\u3000\u3000。 Risk tip: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the competition in lithium battery industry is intensified, the recovery of new energy power generation industry is less than expected, the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates sharply, and the policies of new energy industry are less than expected.
