The industry has achieved performance growth for two consecutive years, and the growth rate will increase in 2021. In 2021, the automobile industry realized an operating revenue of 3135884 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 91.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 54.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.35%. Since the recovery in 2019, the automobile industry has achieved growth for two consecutive years, and the growth rate is higher than that of the previous year. In terms of profitability, the overall gross profit margin of the automotive industry in 2021 was 12.97%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.03pct; The net interest rate was 3.45%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.15pct; Roe dilution was 6.17%, up 0.33pct year-on-year. In the past five years, the gross profit margin of the industry has shown a downward trend year by year, the net profit margin and return on net assets have increased steadily year by year from 2019 to 2021, the cost rate has shown a downward trend year by year, while the R & D cost rate has shown an upward trend year by year, reflecting the industry’s increasing emphasis on R & D.
The performance of the industry declined in 2022q1 and its profitability declined. In 2022q1, the automobile industry realized an operating revenue of 745508 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 26.248 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.17%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 20.154 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.26%. In the first quarter of 2022, under the influence of multiple negative factors such as the rise in the price of raw materials, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the repeated spread of the national epidemic, the scale of revenue and net profit decreased year-on-year, the decline of net profit was greater than that of revenue, and the profitability decreased year-on-year. The overall gross profit margin of the industry in 2022q1 was 12.95%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.47pct; The net interest rate was 3.91%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85pct; Roe dilution was 1.73%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.59pct.
Investment suggestion: since this year, the performance of the automobile industry has been under pressure under the influence of multiple negative factors. In April, China’s automobile production and sales fell sharply on a month on month basis due to the impact of the Shanghai epidemic. With the easing of the epidemic, the automobile industry chain accelerated the resumption of work and production, many ministries and commissions vigorously promoted automobile consumption, and various measures to promote consumption, such as car purchase subsidies and relaxing purchase restrictions, were successively released. A new round of policies on automobile going to the countryside is expected to be introduced in the near future. In the second half of the year, automobile production and sales are expected to meet the restorative growth, superimposed with the signs that the price of raw materials is now falling, and the fundamentals are expected to pick up. The recent sharp fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is also conducive to the enhancement of the profitability of export business. The valuation of the sector is expected to be repaired and the configuration value will reappear. It’s recommended that the proposal focus on the self owned vehicle brand with rising competitiveness under the opportunity of industrial change: the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 594 \ ( Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) ( Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) ) Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ）、 Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ）。
Risk warning. Risk of automobile production and sales falling short of expectations; Risk of sharp rise in raw material prices; Supply chain tension risk; The risk of uncertainty caused by repeated outbreaks; Risk of large exchange rate fluctuations.
