After the implementation of the REpower EU plan, the four EU Member States committed to a total installed capacity of 150gw of offshore wind power in 2050, comprehensively speed up the construction of wind power photovoltaic in Europe, and worry free space for new energy power generation in the medium term; Maintain a strong rating in the industry.
The EU issued the repowereu plan to accelerate photovoltaic development and support energy independence: on May 18, the European Commission issued the repowereu plan, which proposed to increase the overall target of renewable energy in 2030 from 40% to 45%; By 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic will reach 320gw, and by 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic will reach 600gw, that is, the average annual installed capacity of photovoltaic will be at least 35gw from 2021 to 2025 and at least 45gw from 2021 to 2030; In addition, the document also proposes to gradually force the installation of photovoltaic on new residential and industrial and commercial buildings. By 2027, an additional investment of 26 billion euros will be added on the basis of fitfor55 to support the implementation of the REpower EU plan and the realization of energy independence by the EU before 2027.
The four EU Member States promised to increase the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power by 10 times by 2050: according to the official information of the Danish government, on May 18, the governments of Denmark, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands jointly signed a joint statement at the “North Sea Offshore Wind Power Summit”, promising to increase the installed capacity of offshore wind power in the four countries by 10 times by 2050, that is, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in the four countries will reach at least 150gw by 2050, At the same time, the phased goal is put forward, that is, by 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in the four countries will reach at least 65gw.
The demand for PV in Europe continues to be high, and the price center is expected to be higher than expected: affected by the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of energy prices in some parts of Europe and the successive implementation of European energy independence policies, the demand for PV installed capacity in Europe has maintained a high boom recently, driving the export of PV products in China. According to the data of China Customs, from January to April 2022, China exported Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries totaling 95.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92.8%; In April, the export of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries was 22.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.6%. The demand for overseas photovoltaic terminals is good, supporting the high operation of module prices. Recently, the price of European modules is about US $0.28/w, which is a certain premium compared with other regions. At the same time, the price of Chinese modules is more than 1.9 yuan / W. Under the condition that the demand of photovoltaic industry chain in 2022220gw is expected to be higher than that in 20222022.
The speed-up of offshore wind power planning is beneficial to the parts with strong ability to go to sea: the speed-up of European offshore wind power planning is expected to reach 6Gw in Denmark, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands in the future. We believe that the production capacity of castings, spindles and other parts mainly concentrated in China will benefit more. At the same time, with the gradual decline of the impact of the epidemic, the production, delivery and shipment of parts enterprises are expected to gradually return to normal, and the shipment volume is expected to be significantly repaired month on month.
Investment suggestion: the REpower EU plan has been implemented. The four EU member states have promised that the total installed capacity of offshore wind power will be 150gw in 2050, the construction of wind power photovoltaic in Europe will be comprehensively accelerated, and there will be no worry about the medium-term space of new energy power generation. In terms of photovoltaic, the demand toughness outside China is higher than expected, the price center of the industrial chain is expected to move up throughout the year, and the target with high growth rate is expected to be selected to meet the challenges of capacity cycle. The industrialization of hjt and TOPCON batteries is promoted in an all-round way. In terms of wind power, China’s economic inflection point is ahead of schedule, the demand for offshore wind power is accelerated, the overseas demand is expected to exceed expectations, and the supply chain of parts and components may be tight at different stages. To recommend the green energy of the base of the base of the rumbon, the ‘ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 459 , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc.
Risk warning: price competition exceeds expectations; Adverse fluctuations in raw material prices; New energy policy risks; International trade friction risk; Technical iteration risk; Risk absorption; The cost performance of new photovoltaic technology does not meet expectations; Large scale cost reduction does not meet expectations; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
