Key investment points
Core: the industry price was still strong in April, and follow-up attention was paid to the repair of local price depressions
In terms of industry, the unit price of April 2022 ticket was 9.90 yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.31 yuan. Among them, for the price wind vane in key grain producing areas, the unit price of Yiwu April ticket was 3.06 yuan, a month on month increase of -0.01; The unit price of Guangzhou March ticket is 8.24 yuan, with a month on month increase of + 0.92 yuan.
In terms of the company, in April 2022, the unit price of Yunda ticket was 2.53 yuan, with a month on month comparison of -0.06 yuan; The unit price of round pass ticket is 2.51 yuan, with a month on month increase of + 0.03 yuan; The unit price of Shentong ticket is 2.57 yuan, with a month on month increase of + 0.01 yuan.
Core analysis: in April, the industrial unit price further increased by 0.31 yuan month on month, and the verified price is still strong. In addition, the month on month differentiation of ticket unit price of each company is mainly due to the difference in the proportion of returned and exchanged goods, which is affected by the performance ability of the epidemic area. Supervision promotes the price to return to a benign trend. We judge that the subsequent price is expected to continue to be strong and the temporary cost can be transmitted smoothly. We will pay attention to the repair of price depressions such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
The epidemic mainly affects the timeliness of performance rather than the demand for performance
Affected by the local epidemic, the single volume of the industry decreased by 12.0% year-on-year in April. In April 2022, affected by the local epidemic, the number of express orders in the industry was 7.483 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%; From January to April 2022, the total single volume still increased by 4.2% year-on-year.
According to our analysis, the impact of the epidemic on express delivery is mainly due to the timeliness of performance rather than the demand for performance:
1) demand side: during the epidemic period, offline consumption channels are restricted, which catalyzes the transfer of consumption to online. During the resumption of the epidemic in 2020, China's cumulative penetration rate of physical online shopping increased from 21.5% in February to 24.1% in April. In April 2022, the cumulative penetration rate of physical online shopping was 23.8%, with a month on month increase of 0.6pts and a year-on-year increase of 1.6pts.
2) receiving end: for the b-end warehouse and sorting center in the epidemic sealing and control area, there is a backlog of outgoing documents; In addition, we analyze that the main reason for the trunk line transportation is that the timeliness is affected due to the superposition of the needs of express disinfection and sterilization and pass licenses.
3) at the delivery end, the shortage of transport capacity in the last kilometer also leads to the backlog of express mail, but the express delivery is a living material guarantee enterprise. We judge that the performance capacity is expected to be marginally improved under the improvement of the epidemic situation, and the volume of packages may rebound significantly at that time. At present, the express delivery capacity of Shanghai Post has recovered to about one-fifth of the normal daily average level. Shanghai post administration expects that the industry collection level will recover to about 70% of the normal daily average level by the middle of June.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the single quantity of access system decreased in April, and the unit price maintained a positive increase
Under the influence of the epidemic, the single volume of express enterprises decreased to varying degrees in April. In April 2022, SF's single quantity was 747 million, with a year-on-year market share of -0.17pts to 9.98%; Yunda has a single volume of 1.132 billion pieces, with a year-on-year market share of -1.39 PTs to 15.13%, which is mainly affected by the one-time epidemic in Shanxi. We expect that the impact has been marginally improved; The number of Yuantong orders was 1.246 billion, with a year-on-year market share of + 1.25 PTs to 16.65%; The number of Shentong orders was 791 million, with a year-on-year market share of + 0.49pts to 10.57%.
The share is still concentrated to the leader. According to the express service brand concentration index CR8 released by the State Post Office, the cumulative CR8 in April 2022 was 84.5%, still up 4.1pts from the same period last year; In terms of the cumulative market share of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong, the cumulative Cr4 of A-share express in April 2022 was 53.8%, an increase of 2.0pts year-on-year, and the single volume still showed a trend of concentration to the leader.
Investment: the track pattern is gradually clear and optimistic about the leading development
Policy supervision is the source driving force for the recovery of the express boom, and the trend is gradually increasing. Following the legislation of the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry in September 2021, the state post office began to solicit public opinions on the measures for the administration of express market (Revised Draft) on January 7, 2022. From the revised content of the measures, we interpret the key increment as one core, two dimensions and three key points: "one core" is to promote the national high-quality development of the express industry; "Two dimensions" lie in competition order and service quality; The "three key points" are to prohibit price competition below the cost line, rectify the phenomenon of collusive price manipulation and fictitious express information, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of express employees. The regulatory legislation will be upgraded to the national level, and local price depressions will be repaired, so as to ensure the profitability in multiple aspects and return to benign. The repair of industry value is expected to exceed expectations. In March 2022, the regulation of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry was officially implemented, which will further implement the requirement of providing express services at no less than the cost.
Express value repair is divided into three levels and two stages, which is about to enter the essential level of profit repair. For the value restoration after the vicious price war, we believe that we should distinguish three levels: 1) policy control, 2) price return, and 3) profit restoration. In the second and third quarters of last year, with the introduction of the policy, the industry price gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy and price restoration, it has begun to enter the most essential level of value restoration, that is, the level of profit restoration.
Invest in different tracks and be optimistic about the leading development. In terms of franchise system, we are optimistic about Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , the improvement of value certainty, Zhongtong express, the leader of single volume profit, and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ; In terms of direct marketing, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of network extension and barrier upgrading under the broad layout of traditional + emerging business forms S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) .
Risk warning: loose policy control; Deterioration of express price war; The growth of physical online shopping fell.
