EU PV installation will exceed expectations, with an average annual installed capacity of 47gw in the next nine years, an increase of 81% over 2021
1) on May 18, the EU announced the detailed rules of the REpower EU scheme, which plans to invest an additional 210 billion euros in renewable energy in the next five years, and increase the proportion of renewable energy from 40% to 45% in 2030.
2) according to the calculation of the EU, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic is expected to double in 2025 (320gw, corresponding to 35gw of new installed capacity in 20222025) and 600gw in 2030 (corresponding to 56gw of new installed capacity in 20262030).
3) by the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of the EU is 179gw. If the cumulative installed capacity is 600gw in 2030, the annual average new installed capacity from 2022 to 2030 will reach 47gw. In 2021, the new installed capacity of the EU was 26gw, 81% higher than the average. Since 2022, affected by the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine + inflation, the EU has paid more and more attention to energy security.
Photovoltaic industry: silicon materials rose continuously after 16 weeks; Promote the demand for PV downstream expansion
1) photovoltaic industry: we estimate that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China is expected to reach 416536gw and CAGR will reach 24% – 26% in 2030; The global new installed capacity demand will reach 12461491gw, and the CAGR will reach 25% – 27%. The demand for photovoltaic installed capacity will grow tenfold in the next decade, with huge market space.
2) the price of silicon material has risen for 16 weeks, and the redistribution of industrial chain value is expected to lead to the expansion of production: as of the latest price statistics of Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain this week, the price of silicon material has ended rising for 16 consecutive weeks, with a total increase of nearly 11%. Since 2022, there has been strong demand for photovoltaic at home and abroad, which has led to the continuous rise of prices in all links of the industrial chain, exceeding expectations. From 2022 to 2023, the silicon material end will usher in the launch of new production capacity. With the relaxation of silicon material supply end and the decline of price, the profitability of the industrial chain is expected to be redistributed to the three downstream links (silicon wafer, battery and module), giving rise to the demand for equipment expansion.
Photovoltaic equipment: the core logic of the industry: the growth space depends on the iteration speed of new technologies
1) technology iteration: the new photovoltaic technology iteration is fast (continuous cost reduction), giving birth to the industry’s production capacity from 0 to 1. The photovoltaic equipment with continuous iteration of new technology will still have good growth in the next few years.
2) there is a large space in the downstream market of photovoltaic (10 times the new installed capacity in 10 years) + the industry has the ability of platform extension (layout to other pan semiconductor industries), so that photovoltaic equipment is one of the few industries in the special equipment industry [which can grow into large companies].
Investment suggestion: focus on benefiting technology iteration + companies with flat layout ability
1) [battery equipment] hjt technological innovation brings both volume and price rise. Key recommendations: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Sichuan Injet Electric Co.Ltd(300820) . Pay attention to Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) .
2) [component equipment] welcome the multiple technological changes of “slicing + multiple main grids + multiple slices”, with stable price and increased volume. Key recommendations: Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) .
3) [the leader with flat layout ability] extends to semiconductor, silicon carbide, sapphire and other fields. Key recommendations: Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Sichuan Injet Electric Co.Ltd(300820) .
