1. Aeroengine: it is estimated that the compound growth rate of the 14th five year plan will be 20% – 25%
Turbofan, turboshaft and turboprop are the three main types of aeroengines at present. Aviation industry has a long slope and thick snow: the product life cycle is long; Large market space after maintenance; Large civil market
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China started a large number of military aircraft, and the demand for engines surged; The commercial aero-engine market with an annual average of 100 billion needs to be controlled independently. The aeroengine industry is expected to have long-term growth, of which the compound growth rate of the “14th five year plan” is about 20% – 25%.
2. Aviation development industry chain: the whole machine is produced by aviation development group, and the middle and upper reaches are gradually market-oriented
The aviation industry chain is mainly composed of three links: design and R & D, processing and manufacturing, operation and maintenance; Processing and manufacturing links can be subdivided into raw materials, midstream parts and subsystems, and downstream complete machines
Revenue side: midstream parts enjoy the spillover effect of “small core and large cooperation” from the main engine factory. There is still room for domestic substitution of raw materials such as superalloys, and the growth rate will be higher than that of the industry;
Profit side: at present, the profit margin of the main engine factory is low, and it is flexible under the catalysis of “scale effect / state-owned enterprise reform / large prepayment / pricing reform / small core and large cooperation”. The middle and upper reaches benefit from the scale effect, but there is also the pressure of step price reduction. It is expected that the profit margin will remain stable and increase slightly
3. Investment suggestion: the industry valuation level matches the profit growth rate best in history, with emphasis on the whole machine and core supporting equipment
The performance flexibility of the main engine factory is large: it is expected that the revenue at the end of the 14th five year plan is expected to reach three times that at the end of the 13th five year plan, the profit margin is expected to increase from 4% to 8-10%, and the net profit flexibility is large. Recommend [ Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ], pay close attention to the technical maturity of the whole machine, catalysis related to the reform of state-owned enterprises and other indicators, and grasp the inflection point of performance
Middle and upper reaches of independent supply type: Based on certainty, it can enjoy high valuation: the growth of revenue is expected to be basically synchronized with the industry, the profit margin is rising steadily, and the growth of net profit is faster than that of revenue. It is recommended that [ Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) ] fixed costs account for nearly 60% of the operating costs, with great potential to improve the profit margin and will continue to grow rapidly; It is suggested to pay attention to the current only supplier of engine stealth materials of [Huaqin technology] and enjoy the dual drive of “large volume of stealth fighters + high maintenance demand”
Middle and upper reaches of market competition: pay close attention to the large-scale rhythm of participating models: benefiting from “domestic substitution” and “small core and large cooperation”, the overall growth rate of revenue is faster than that of the industry. It is expected that the revenue at the end of the 14th five year plan is expected to reach more than four times that at the end of the 13th five year plan, and the growth of net profit is faster than that of revenue. It is recommended that [ Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) ] have a solid position in the industry and expand product categories with “high-end capacity expansion”; There is still room to improve the profitability of state-owned enterprise reform; [ Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) ] titanium alloy field mainly participates in new models and continues to extend to the field of superalloys; It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) ] [ Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) ] [ Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) ] [ Xi’An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) ] have business extension, which is expected to open a new growth curve; [ Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) ] [ Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) ] [ Wedge Industrial Co.Ltd(000534) ] [ Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) ] supporting models are expected to gradually usher in large quantities
Selected objects: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765)
