The epidemic does not change the general trend of electrification, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase
1) in April 2022, affected by the epidemic, the sales volume of new energy vehicles slowed down, but still maintained rapid growth. In mid April 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 299000, with a year-on-year increase of 45%. From January to April 2021, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.548 million, with a year-on-year increase of 115%.
2) the epidemic does not change the general trend of electrification, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, reaching a record high. In April, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 25%, of which the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 29%, with a year-on-year increase of 18 PCT and a record high.
We expect that the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 5.4 million, with a year-on-year increase of 54% and a penetration rate of 20%, and continue to maintain rapid growth.
The marginal impact of the epidemic is weakened, and bidding outside China is expected to accelerate
We expect that with the continuous promotion of resumption of work and production, the sales growth of new energy vehicles is expected to gradually return to the normal level, and the Chinese and overseas bidding of lithium battery equipment is expected to accelerate.
1) in the Chinese market, the bidding of head power battery enterprises from January to April is mainly small and loose orders. It is expected that large-scale equipment bidding is expected to be gradually opened in June, and the third quarter may reach the peak of this year. It is suggested to pay attention to the production expansion plan of China's second and third line power battery enterprises (including new forces of lithium batteries), or exceed market expectations.
2) for overseas markets, it is suggested to pay attention to the acceleration of power battery production expansion in Europe and North America. Key enterprises: Volkswagen, ACC, northvolt, LG North America, etc. are expected to open bidding in June.
Since the beginning of the year, the demand for lithium battery equipment has remained high, and China's lithium battery equipment is optimistic about going to sea
In order to gain market share, power battery enterprises need to prepare sufficient production capacity in advance. The short-term sales fluctuation of new energy vehicles will not affect the bidding demand of lithium battery equipment. Recently, the micro level of lithium-ion equipment has maintained a high level of bidding verification, and the current situation of lithium-ion equipment has also been maintained.
Investment advice
China's lithium battery industry has global competitiveness, and the global new energy vehicle industry is accelerating growth. China's large-scale bidding for lithium battery equipment is imminent, and continues to be optimistic about the lithium battery equipment sector.
Three main investment lines are recommended for lithium battery equipment:
1) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) industrial chain The Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) rate started to expand production in 2020, which fully benefited relevant equipment companies. It is recommended that Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) . According to the supplementary announcement, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) is expected to obtain 50% share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) core cell production equipment. In addition, pay attention to Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co.Ltd(300953) , Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) , Shenzhen Yinghe Technology Co.Ltd(300457) , etc.
2) overseas leading lithium battery industry chain. In the next few years, the growth rate of overseas lithium batteries will be higher than that of China, and the leading lithium battery equipment with the ability to go to sea will benefit. Focus on recommending Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (supporting Volkswagen and northvolt), continue to recommend Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , and the company has a share of more than 50% in LG and other Japanese and Korean power battery leaders.
3) be optimistic about the application of new technologies and new fields. Large cylindrical lithium battery equipment, laminating machine and power exchange equipment are expected to become a new trend, and relevant equipment companies will benefit. Recommend Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) (increase in the number of welding lugs) Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (laminating machine), Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) (laminating machine, photovoltaic equipment), Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) (laminating machine), etc; Look forward to Vt Industrial Technology Co.Ltd(300707) (large cylinder kneading machine), Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) (large cylinder battery shell), Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) (power exchange equipment), Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) (power exchange equipment), Shenzhen Colibri Technologies Co.Ltd(002957) (lamination machine), etc.
Risk tips:
The production expansion of downstream lithium battery enterprises is lower than expected; Overseas market development was less than expected.
