Core view
The international crude oil price fluctuated upward as a whole this week. The average Brent price this week was $110.8/barrel, up $3.0 from the average price last week, and the average WTI price was $110.6/barrel, up $5.2 from the average price last week. Internationally, there is uncertainty in Europe’s crude oil trade sanctions against Russia. At the same time, the United States hopes to use the nopec scheme to force Saudi Arabia to release a large number of idle production capacity in the short term and resolve the contradiction of high oil prices after increasing production. However, Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production moderately according to the plan. Therefore, we see the overall trend of shock in international oil prices. Considering the long-term complexity of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the recovery of global demand, we are still optimistic that the international oil price will remain at the current high level. The production of new polysilicon units and the daily chlorine supplement of existing capacity will greatly increase the demand for trichlorosilane. This year, the supply of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane is very limited, and it is recommended [ Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) ]. Recently, the price of glufosinate has rebounded significantly. The pull of overseas demand and the phased release of new production capacity have promoted the strong rebound of glufosinate price. We are optimistic about the upward price of glufosinate in the second quarter, with emphasis on [ Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) ]. Recently, due to the factors of rising energy costs, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the rise of global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices, the price of overseas chemical fertilizer has risen sharply. At present, the FOB price of phosphate fertilizer in North Africa has reached 1200 US dollars / ton, and the CIF price of potash fertilizer in Brazil has risen to more than 1200 US dollars / ton. Due to the strong resource attributes of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer, and Russia’s 10% and 20% share of the global market respectively, It is difficult to increase production capacity in a short time. We strongly recommend [ Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) ] and [ Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ]. Benefiting from the obvious pull of photovoltaic glass demand and the contraction of supply side capacity, the prosperity of soda ash industry continues to improve, and the product price is expected to continue to rise. Focus on the natural alkali process leader [ Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) ] with strong cost advantage and the associated alkali process target [Shuanghuan Technology], etc. At the same time, we suggest that we focus on high growth companies with strong certainty, such as Poten Environment Group Co.Ltd(603603) 938 (alodonose) and other stocks.
Key data tracking
Price rise and fall: the top five increases in the price of chemical products this week are dimethyl carbonate (9.40%), light soda ash (6.62%), POY (4.12%), PTA (4.01%), monoammonium phosphate (3.39%); The top five declines in the price of chemical products this week were R134a (- 9.26%), ethyl acetate (- 3.60%), nylon 7 chips (- 3.35%), soft foam polyether (- 2.53%), epichlorohydrin (propylene method) (- 2.38%).
Rise and fall of price difference: the top five increases in the price difference of chemical products this week are ethylene oxide (172.92%), PTA (40.70%), soft foam polyether (31.83%), caprolactam (25.71%) and dimethyl carbonate (18.72%); Propylene (naphtha method) (- 130.62%), R134a (- 43.35%), methanol (- 40.74%), butyl acetate (- 28.52%) and PMMA (- 27.48%) fell the top five in the price difference of chemical products this week.
Risk warning: the international crude oil price fluctuates sharply; Poor control of the overseas epidemic has led to a lower than expected recovery.
