\u3000\u3 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 215 Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) )
Born in the Department of missing, deeply cultivated catering channels. In 2016, the company broke away from the Department of missing and adhered to the positioning of “only for catering and chef selection”, becoming one of the earliest suppliers in China to provide quick-frozen noodles and rice products solutions for catering stores, hotels, group meals and rural kitchens. The company provides customized and standardized quick-frozen food and related catering kitchen solutions, develops four categories of products: frying, baking, cooking and dishes, and continues to make great efforts to create large single products under various categories. In 2021, the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.27 billion yuan / 90 million yuan, and the four-year CAGR will be + 21.1% / + 17.4% respectively.
The demand of catering market is strong, and the subdivided leaders have great prospects. At present, the retail market of China’s quick-frozen rice noodle industry is “tripartite confrontation”, and the market share may further move closer to the leader; The catering market is still in the blue ocean and is still in the stage of incremental competition. Catering chain, kitchen industrialization, the emergence and acceleration of new business forms and other factors continue to drive the rising demand. It is expected to become a new high growth track in the future. Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) who focuses on catering supply chain will fully enjoy the first mover advantage.
Channel barriers are high, and large single products contribute to stable performance. 1) Channel: the company has cultivated 2B channel for many years, and has established in-depth cooperative relations with famous large catering enterprises at home and abroad, such as yum, Haidilao and Wallace. It is a T1 supplier of Yum China, with deep channel barriers. The advantages in big business channels also have a benchmarking effect, which is conducive to the expansion of distribution channels. In 2021, the company’s distribution revenue was 760 million yuan, accounting for 60% of the revenue. In four years, the CAGR reached 27%, and the number of dealers increased to 968. In addition, the company vigorously supported core dealers, accounting for 210 million of the top 20 dealers, with a year-on-year increase of + 50%; 2) Products: fried products account for half of the country, and large single product fried dough sticks continue to contribute to stable performance. However, the company broke through the limitations of traditional products of quick-frozen rice noodles, carried out new product research and development based on the scene, and made full use of the synergy to continue to create new large single products. For example, fried dough sticks have been subdivided into six scenes: hot pot, fast food, buffet, banquet, breakfast and takeout. In addition, the company also actively plans the blue ocean market of prefabricated vegetables. In the future, the company is expected to achieve continuous growth in performance by expanding categories.
Excellent business model, high turnover, high net profit and high roe contribution. Under the background of no obvious advantage in gross profit margin, the company’s expense management ability is outstanding, which significantly reduces the level of the company’s sales expense rate and improves the profit margin. The net profit margin is maintained at about 7%, which is at a high level in the industry. In addition, the company has a high level of asset turnover. On the one hand, it ensures the product capacity through the processing mode of “determining production by sales”. The customer retention rate is high and the inventory turnover rate is high. On the other hand, the company has a sound customer relationship and strong collection ability and accounts receivable control.
Profit forecast and valuation rating: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 107 / 140 / 179 million yuan respectively, corresponding to pe38.9 million yuan 4/29.5/23.0X。 After excluding the impact of equity incentive, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is RMB 118 / 150 / 184 million respectively, corresponding to pe34.4 million 7 / 27.5 / 22.3x, with “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, food safety risk, increased market competition risk, less than expected channel expansion, etc.
