\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 733 Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) )
Report summary
Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) is the global leader in lithium battery boehmite, with rapid growth in performance Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) founded in 2006, it is a high-tech enterprise focusing on the R & D, production and sales of advanced inorganic non-metallic composites such as lithium battery coating materials, electronic communication function filling materials and low smoke halogen-free flame retardant materials. From 2016 to 2021, the company’s revenue CAGR was 50%; Net profit attributable to parent company CAGR is 105%.
The boom of power battery continues, and the demand for lithium battery boehmite is expected to increase. We expect the installed capacity of power batteries in China and the world to be 249gwh and 492gwh respectively in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 62% and 58%. It is estimated that by 2025, the installed capacity of power batteries in China and the world will be 642gwh and 1341gwh respectively, and the CAGR from 2021 to 2025 will be 43% and 44% respectively. According to the data of lithium battery of Gaogong, in 2021, the coating of lithium battery diaphragm accounted for 53%, of which inorganic coating accounted for 90%, and boehmite in inorganic coating accounted for more than 50%. We expect that by 2025, the proportion of lithium diaphragm coating will increase to more than 70%, and the proportion of inorganic coating will maintain 90%, of which boehmite will increase to 75%. It is estimated that the demand for boehmite for power battery diaphragm coating from 2022 to 2025 is 22000 tons, 39000 tons, 65000 tons and 99000 tons respectively, and the CAGR from 2021 to 2025 is 73%.
The technical indicators of boehmite products of the company are better than those of competitors, and the market share of the company is in the lead in the world. According to the data disclosed in the company’s prospectus, the company’s boehmite products are superior to nabaltec Ag and Chinalco Zhengzhou Research Institute in terms of purity and median particle size, and the specific surface area indicators are basically the same. According to the data in the company’s prospectus, in 2018 and 2019, the company’s lithium boehmite accounted for 31% and 36% of the global market respectively, ranking second. According to the data of lithium battery of Gaogong, in 2021 Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) surpassed nabaltec of Germany to become the largest supplier of boehmite for lithium battery in the world, with a global market share of more than 50% and a Chinese market share of more than 80%.
The company’s technical indicators of silica powder materials are leading in the industry. The company’s products in the electronic communication function filling material industry are mainly high-performance silica powder materials, spherical alumina materials and boehmite. According to the comparison with DENKA and Novoray Corporation(688300) , the company’s fused silica powder material is ahead of or at the same level as Novoray Corporation(688300) ‘s fused silica powder and Japan electrochemical Corporation’s specially treated fused silica in terms of median particle size, conductivity, spheroidization rate, dielectric constant and dielectric loss, black spots, magnetic foreign matters and other indicators.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 250 million yuan, 490 million yuan and 800 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 134%, 93% and 64%, and the corresponding PE valuation will be 44, 23 and 14 times respectively. It will be rated as “overweight” for the first time.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the industry competition is intensified, and the price reduction of products is higher than expected.
