\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 607 Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) )
The newly revised vocational education law was passed, and the policy is good or drives the valuation and expected improvement of the education sector
Last year, due to the influence of policies, the valuation and attention of education, real estate, Internet and other tracks were greatly dragged down. Recently, with the introduction of policies, it may effectively improve the attention and valuation repair of education and other sectors. The newly revised vocational education law was passed, which once again made it clear that the State encourages, guides and supports enterprises and other social forces to set up vocational schools and vocational training institutions according to law, eliminates the policy obstacles for social forces to participate in expanding vocational education, benefits the Matthew effect of industry leaders and high-quality vocational education institutions, and puts forward high-quality differentiated vocational education services.
Letter Phi illegal punishment landing, the fundamentals are expected to stabilize reverse
The company has previously received the prior notice of administrative punishment, and the adverse factors have been implemented. At present, the total amount of relevant capital punishment is about 10 million yuan, of which the amount of punishment by the company and relevant individuals is 4 million yuan and 6 million yuan respectively. The company will strengthen the standardization of internal governance and comprehensively improve the level of compliance management and internal control; At the same time, on the basis of meeting market demand, we will continue to improve operational efficiency, stabilize the fundamentals and are expected to hit the bottom and reverse.
Optimize the course structure and expenses, and improve the margin of profitability
Lixiangxue and other high-level retired from work, the collection quality was significantly improved, the personnel were optimized, the cost expenditure was reduced, and the gross profit margin and net profit margin were stabilized and improved. As of 22q1, the contract liabilities increased by 32% compared with the beginning of the period, reflecting the strong market demand and the continuous release of the demand for the recruitment of public positions; Verify the operation toughness of the company, and rely on multi-dimensional competitive advantages such as teaching and research teacher channels after weakening price means. By the end of 2021, the number of employees of the company had been reduced by 20%, and the cash pressure paid to employees had been significantly reduced. The company has accelerated the optimization of redundant personnel and outlets, and the net profit margin and gross profit margin have been effectively improved.
Lay out skill training, build incremental tob business, and enrich the growth path of vocational education leaders
Recently, the company launched the pan career promotion platform "Zhonggong excellent position" and the enterprise training platform "enterprise easy school". Among them, "Zhonggong excellent position" provides vocational skill training services in five categories: workplace literacy, sideline part-time, new vocational skills, professional technology and interests and hobbies; "Enterprise easy school" provides enterprises with one-stop digital intelligence solutions to help enterprises transform and upgrade digital intelligence through the mode of technology + content + talents. The company continues to explore new business segments of vocational education, meet the training needs of high-quality vocational skills talents under the background of the current national support for flexible employment, promote the large-scale process of vocational skills training, and create a business growth point.
Maintain profit forecast and buy rating
At present, it has been affected by short-term negative factors such as the suspension of classes and the postponement of exams, which does not change the company's view on the long-term trend. Urbanization, equalization of public services, large-scale natural renewal of in-service personnel, stable employment and other factors are still the general trend of economic and social development, and the long tail trend of the recruitment market will continue to strengthen. In the new industry environment, the company will actively carry out product innovation and optimization, respond faster and undertake more effectively to the demand for new employment, and shift from the pursuit of high growth scale to sustainable and healthy development. It is recommended to pay active attention to the company. We expect the company's EPS in 22-24 years to be 0.09, 0.11 and 0.13 yuan respectively, and PE to be 62.3, 49.9 and 40.0 times respectively.
Risk tips: industry related policy changes; The training demand is less than expected; Intensified market competition; The negative impact of administrative punishment on the company; The standardization of the company's internal governance needs to be strengthened; Repeated outbreaks and other risks.
