\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 410 Glodon Company Limited(002410) )
Recently, a number of policies have strongly supported infrastructure development. On April 26, 2022, the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission stressed that infrastructure is an important support for economic and social development, and it is necessary to build a modern infrastructure system; The 2022 government work report also emphasizes "building digital information infrastructure, promoting 5g large-scale application and promoting industrial digital transformation".
The company's historical income is closely related to the downstream prosperity, and the improvement of infrastructure prosperity is expected to bring obvious benefits to the company. According to the sensitivity analysis of the impact of marginal restoration of real estate and infrastructure on Glodon Company Limited(002410) issued by us earlier, historically, the growth rate of the company's revenue has a clear correlation with the growth rate of new construction area of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) industry. The prosperity of the construction industry is closely related to the prosperity of infrastructure. At the same time, infrastructure plays an important role in steady growth. Under the catalysis of policies, the prosperity of infrastructure is expected to continue to be repaired.
The product side gradually makes efforts to the infrastructure field to create an overall solution for digital infrastructure. For infrastructure customers, the company has created a separate infrastructure product line and released an overall digital infrastructure solution in June 2021, including tool products (BIM parametric modeling, infrastructure zebra progress, etc.) and project level digital solutions (infrastructure materials, infrastructure labor, infrastructure progress, digital infrastructure command and dispatching platform, etc.) to meet the "cross time and space" remote command and dispatching needs of infrastructure projects, Solve the problem of remote management of infrastructure projects, help the project improve quality and efficiency, and carry out the construction of several model projects. At the same time, the company's digital infrastructure command and dispatching platform can make the project manager know the project like the back of his hand without going to the scene through new technologies such as sensors, video and UAVs.
The construction business space is large, the income is increased rapidly, and a high level of productization is maintained at the same time. 1) The informatization level of the construction industry is low and there is a large space for development in the future. At the same time, informatization is expected to become an important starting point for construction enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency. According to our previous in-depth report, the market space available for the company's construction business is up to 10 billion, and there is still a large space at present. At the same time, with the slowdown of the growth rate of infrastructure and real estate industries and the increasing cost pressure of the industry, it is the general trend to reduce costs and increase efficiency through informatization.
2) in 2021, the company's construction business accelerated growth, and the annual growth target in 2022 reached 30%. Under the strategic guidance of large-scale procurement and key expansion of head customers, the company's construction business developed rapidly. In 2021, the annual construction business revenue was 1.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%. Among them, the construction business revenue in the second half of 2021 was about 890 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 45%. The construction business showed signs of accelerated growth from the second half of the year. Meanwhile, in the first half of 2021, the company gave priority to expanding contracts and expanding increment. The newly signed contract amount increased by more than 100% compared with the same period of last year. The newly signed contract amount achieved rapid growth in 2021. According to the presentation of the company's annual performance briefing in 2021, the company's construction business target growth rate in 2022 is 30%.
3) the degree of productization is high, and the gross profit margin has remained at about 70% in recent five years. In terms of productization capacity, although the company's construction business includes some hardware products, it still maintains a high gross profit margin, which has remained above 66% in recent five years. In terms of supply chain management, the company has introduced external consulting companies to build supply chain management capabilities, and internally set up a special team to standardize procurement behavior. In the past two years, the efficiency of the supply chain has been greatly improved.
Infrastructure development is expected to bring greater flexibility to the company's construction business. In 2021, the growth rate of China's infrastructure construction (excluding power) investment was 0.4%, which was relatively low in recent years, but the company's construction business still achieved rapid growth. Therefore, it can be seen that in the case of low industry penetration and the company's key customer expansion strategy, the company's own growth momentum is strong. If the infrastructure is further developed in the future, the growth momentum of the company is expected to be further strengthened, and the construction business may have greater flexibility.
The trinity of construction cost and design makes the synergy more attractive. 1) In terms of cost business, the development of infrastructure will improve the landscape of the whole construction industry, which will play a positive role in the expansion of cost staff and the improvement of product value. The company is also making efforts to build infrastructure calculation products, and new products such as highway calculation and new market policy calculation can be expected in the future.
2) in terms of design business, design is at the front end of the company's product chain. At the same time, considering that the company's self-designed products are gradually promoted, the improvement of infrastructure prosperity will also help the design business accelerate to the market.
3) in terms of core business linkage, the company is currently developing from single point product layout to project enterprise integration. Construction, cost and design will achieve more effective linkage and combine preliminary design, cost management and construction production. The improvement of infrastructure prosperity in the future will effectively improve and promote the development of the company's cost and design business, and better realize the linkage between different businesses.
Investment suggestion: Glodon Company Limited(002410) is a leading enterprise in the field of engineering cost. The SaaS transformation value of cost business is prominent. The digital construction business is expected to become a new core growth momentum of the company in the future. The design, digital supply and procurement and other businesses are gradually promoted to verify their development potential. With the support of policies, the prosperity of infrastructure, real estate and other industries is expected to recover, and the recovery of the downstream will further enhance the growth momentum of the company and help the long-term development of the company. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 6.912/83.67/10.182 billion yuan. According to the segment valuation method in the previous in-depth report, the company's reasonable valuation is 91.6 billion yuan, which is obviously undervalued. At the same time, the long-term value and growth space of cloud leader are worth looking forward to, so it maintains the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the industry competition intensifies and the product R & D progress is less than expected; Affected by the epidemic, the recovery of real estate and infrastructure was less than expected.
