\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 57 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) )
Investment summary:
The company is a leading enterprise in sensitive skin care in China. The company is a leading listed company of sensitive skin care products in China. Its core brand, Winona pharmaceutical, was born in a pharmaceutical company. Its market share has gradually increased in recent years. In 2019, Winona ranked first in the market share of skin care products at the dermatological level. In 2020, Winona Rongdeng Tianmao double 11 beauty products were the top 1 of domestic products and the top 1 of efficacy skin care products. The company's revenue source is mainly skin care products, with Winona as the core brand. Compared with other listed companies in the same industry, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) has lower asset liability ratio, faster growth of revenue and profit, and higher gross profit margin and net profit margin. The actual controller of the company is the Guo family, and the equity is relatively stable. The actual controller Guo Zhenyu and most senior executives have a strong professional background.
The leading enterprises in the industry still have great room for growth. The market scale of China's skin care products continues to grow, among which the growth rate of Dermatology grade skin care products is higher. According to the consensus of Chinese experts on the diagnosis and treatment of sensitive skin published in 2017, the number of Chinese women with sensitive muscle accounts for about 36.1%, but the market scale of dermatological grade skin care products in China's skin care market is relatively low, which is only 6.39% in 2020. We use method 1: the number of sensitive muscle population x per capita cost and method 2: the market scale of skin care products x the penetration rate of sensitive muscle skin care to calculate the future market space of the industry. It is estimated that the market scale of sensitive muscle skin care in China will be 31.47 billion yuan, 39.22 billion yuan, 48.56 billion yuan and 59.76 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.62%, 24.63%, 23.79% and 23.07% respectively. The market penetration of sensitive skin care in China lags far behind that in Europe and the United States. In recent years, the market share of such foreign brands in China has decreased, and China's leading enterprises have more room to rise.
Company focus: professional sensitive skin care Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) Qi Fa Li
Product side: the company's five brands mainly focus on problem skin, mainly making skin care products and positioning in the medium and high-end market. The core brand Winona has 13 series of products, and the unit price is lower than that of European and American brands and higher than that of Japan, South Korea and other Chinese brands. Focusing on the strategy of main brand + large single product, the company plans to expand sub brands + other functional categories in 2022. "Winonababy" became famous in the first battle of the "double 11" in 2021 and plans to launch in 2022. We predict that the market scale of China's 0-12-year-old infant care products is expected to reach 76.4 billion yuan in 2025. In addition, aoxmed, a high-end anti-aging brand, will be launched in 2022, with good track and huge growth space.
R & D side: relying on Yunnan, the "plant kingdom", the company explores the green thorn fruit, purslane, Yunnan camellia and Yunnan Paris polyphylla as the main raw materials. The company pays attention to R & D, has a large number of patents, accounts for a higher proportion of R & D expenses than companies in the same industry, and cooperates with hospitals in R & D projects. In 2022, the company will continue to increase the proportion of R & D investment.
Channel side: the company adheres to the sales model based on offline channels (accounting for 17.66%) and dominated by online channels (accounting for 82.34%), and the proportion of online sales increases year by year and tends to be stable in 2020. Online channels are mainly self operated (accounting for 63.19%), supplemented by online distribution (accounting for 19.15%). From 2017 to 2021, on the whole, the unit price and gross profit margin of online and offline sales increased slightly, and the cost of new media marketing and terminal promotion decreased, but its proportion of revenue still increased. The company will further expand overseas markets such as Southeast Asia.
Marketing side: Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) focus on online delivery and make full use of new media marketing. Compared with other sensitive skin care brands, Winona, the core brand, has the highest number of fans on all major platforms. In recent years, the company has continuously deepened the construction of private domain traffic, independently built the "Winona counter service platform", and launched the wechat applet self-supporting platform to realize the transformation from public domain traffic to private domain traffic. In addition, the company invited Shu Qi, the representative of sensitive muscle, as the spokesperson, and jointly promoted its popularity across the border through cooperation with Disney, China Post and other brands. The company pays attention to building brand professionalism, makes full use of expert KOL endorsement, actively participates in various academic conferences, publishes relevant research reports, and communicates and cooperates with doctors in the hospital.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.05 yuan, 4.44 yuan and 6.10 yuan respectively. The current price earnings ratio of the stock price will be 60.45 times, 41.55 times and 30.22 times respectively. The company will be given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: the risk of intensified industry competition, the risk of new product sales falling short of expectations, the risk of brand and product concentration, and the risk of rising online sales costs.
