\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: the company released the operating data for April: the revenue in April was 3.122 billion yuan, yoy + 10.78%; Completed 1.246 billion pieces of business, yoy-4.83%; Single ticket income is 2.51 yuan, yoy + 16.41%. Since the end of 2021, the settlement mode of rookie wrapping business in the company's express business has been adjusted from settlement between Hangzhou rookie Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. and franchisees to direct settlement with the company. If the secondary impact is excluded, the company's single ticket revenue in April was 2.44 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.43%. From January to April, the company achieved a total revenue of 12.83 billion yuan, yoy + 25.24%; Completed 4.959 billion pieces of business, yoy + 11.34%; Single ticket income is 2.59 yuan, yoy + 12.49%..
Affected by the epidemic, the business volume decreased slightly, and the single ticket income continued to increase: although affected by the epidemic, the business volume of the industry decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, and the overall pressure was on, the business volume performance of the company was better than that of the industry, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.83%. In April, the business volume was greatly affected by the epidemic in Shanghai. However, with the gradual decline of the impact of the epidemic, "618" promotion and the introduction of consumption promotion policies, the sinking market of e-commerce continued to develop, the demand for express delivery in third and fourth tier cities and rural areas increased rapidly, and the rise of new consumption modes (live delivery, community group purchase and online Red delivery) brought new increment. The demand for online consumption is still strong, and the business volume is expected to return to normal in June. In terms of single ticket revenue, according to the monthly data, under the continuous background of strict regulatory policies in the industry, the single ticket revenue of the company rebounded from the low point of 2.02 yuan / piece in July 2021 to 2.51 yuan / piece in April 2022, with a year-on-year change from - 6.27% to + 16.39%, and the single ticket revenue began to rise significantly.
Layout of international aviation business and improvement of terminal distribution: the company arranged air freight and international freight forwarding business in 201517. With the outbreak of globalization in 2020, the prosperity of the company's air freight and freight forwarding business has increased significantly. By 2021, the company has operated 10 self owned full cargo aircraft, accounting for 5.6% of the national total. It is expected to increase to 13 in 2022, and the cargo capacity and capacity will be significantly improved. At the same time, the company actively promotes the layering of express service and products. With the continuous improvement of digital transformation and cost control ability, the timeliness and service quality will be significantly improved. In addition, the company continues to strengthen the construction of end distribution network, realize diversified distribution system, and continuously promote the "last mile" service to improve quality and efficiency.
Profit forecast: driven by digital transformation and international business, the company's service quality and operation efficiency will be improved, its competitiveness is expected to continue to improve, the single ticket cost still has room for improvement, and its performance is expected to be repaired. It is estimated that the net profit will be 3.08 billion yuan and 3.99 billion yuan respectively in 22 and 23 years, yoy will be + 46% and yoy + 30% respectively, and EPS will be 0.9 yuan and 1.16 yuan respectively. At present, the corresponding P / E of A-share price is 20 times and 16 times, and investment suggestions are given.
Risk tips: intensified market competition, lower cost and higher efficiency than expected, instability of franchisee online stores, etc.
