\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 76 Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) )
Event: the company announced that from May 18, 2021 to May 18, 2022, the company had signed contracts with subsidiaries of the same counterparty Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) including Taizhou Longji, xixianlongji, Shaanxi leyelongji, Ningxia Longji, etc., totaling 674 million orders (excluding tax), accounting for 53.63% of the company's revenue in 2021. Among them, the newly signed Longji series orders in 2022 were about 602 million yuan, accounting for 47.88% of the revenue in 2021.
Benefiting from the expansion of Longji HPBC technology, the order flexibility of the company's key laser equipment is released. On January 24, 2022, the EIA information of Taizhou Longji Leye single crystal battery project with an annual output of 4gw under Longji disclosed that Longji plans to upgrade and transform the production line on the basis of Taizhou Longji's original single crystal battery project with an annual output of 2gw, and transform it into 8 HPBC high-efficiency single crystal battery production lines and auxiliary equipment, which is expected to form a battery chip production line with an annual output of 4gw. In addition to Taizhou, Longji also has battery expansion in Xixian and other bases. On March 13, Longji announced that it planned to expand the production of 20GW silicon wafers, 30GW batteries and 5GW components in Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) with a total investment of 19.5 billion yuan, and the project was officially started on April 8. HPBC is a p-type IBC, which superimposes the tunneling oxide layer structure owned by TOPCON (using LPCVD) on the basis of perc battery, and realizes the back cross of PN junction and metal contact through laser slotting, which puts forward higher requirements for the minority carrier life of p-type silicon wafer. Since the expansion of Longji HPBC originated from the EIA announcement in early 22, according to the Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) announcement, we believe that the newly signed orders of 72.24 million yuan in 2021 are mainly perc laser ablation and Se orders, and the newly signed orders of 602 million in 2022 are mainly HPBC laser slotting orders. Considering that Longji has Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) and other battery capacity expansion plans (the technical path is still controversial), the company is expected to continue to benefit from the expansion of Longji high-efficiency battery.
The new technology layout of photovoltaic cells is comprehensive, and continues to benefit from the technical iterations of TOPCON, hjt, XBC and so on. The company arranges laser boron doping and film opening in TOPCON, laser repair and passivation in hjt and laser slotting in XBC. In terms of metallization, the company's laser transfer printing can effectively save the cost of secondary grid silver slurry, adapt to all technical routes, and special slurry slotting can be used in copper electroplating process. In addition, the company also has laser technology in perovskite slotting, component dicing and other fields. We believe that the company is the subject of flexibility and stability in the switching process of new photovoltaic technologies.
Laser transfer is still an important logic for the company's long-term flexibility release, and we pay attention to the order progress in 22 years. Laser transfer printing is mainly used for the preparation of perc, TOPCON, hjt, XBC and other auxiliary grids. Its advantages are as follows: 1) the grid line is thinner, which can reach 18 at present μ Below m, the slurry will be saved by 30%, corresponding to the saving of silver slurry cost of more than 10 million per GW, and the absolute value of savings on TOPCON, hjt and other routes will be higher; 2) The printing is highly consistent and uniform, with an error of 2 μ m. Low temperature silver paste is also applicable; 3) The slot shape of the flexible film can be changed to realize the fixed grid shape and improve the electrical performance according to different battery structures; 4) Laser transfer printing is non-contact printing, which can avoid the problems of hidden crack, fragment, pollution and scratch in extrusion printing. At the same time, it can adapt to the trend of thin sheet and solve more hidden crack problems caused by thin sheet. At the same time, laser transfer technology shows a higher inclusiveness to the slurry, which can match different sizes such as low-temperature silver slurry and silver clad copper. Therefore, laser transfer printing is expected to become one of the mainstream ways of battery metallization. According to the records of the company's investment and closing activities, for the new battery production line in the future, the company will deliver it to customers in the form of transfer printing complete sets of equipment; For the existing battery production line, the fine grid printing link will be replaced by local replacement to improve and upgrade the production line. At present, dill transfer printing has been connected with a number of customers, and batch orders are expected in 2022. Since the investment of single GW of laser transfer printing is significantly higher than that of single equipment of other technical routes, we believe that the promotion of laser transfer printing is an important logic to support the growth of subsequent orders of the company.
Profit forecast: benefiting from the expectation of Longji's production expansion and transfer orders, the company raised its profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 510, 820 and 1.17 billion yuan, corresponding to pe51, 32 and 22 times, and raised to the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the iteration of photovoltaic technology is less than expected, the research and development of new technology is less than expected, and the market competition intensifies the risk.
