\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 933 Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) )
Lightweight is the general trend, and integrated die casting gives birth to industry dividends: lightweight is an important means of energy conservation and emission reduction in the automotive industry. The self weight and mileage of new energy vehicles are sensitive, especially the demand for lightweight. In the future, the aluminum consumption of electric vehicles is expected to be close to 300kg, which is about 50% higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles. We expect that the market space of automotive aluminum industry will be about 250 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of about 9%, of which the supporting market of new energy vehicles will be about 130 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of about 34%. On the other hand, Tesla led the wave of integrated die-casting, raised the threshold of die-casting equipment, heat-free materials, molds and other industries, and the company actively followed up and shared the industry dividend.
The company has full orders, product & capacity expansion and strong certainty of future growth: 1) on the product side, the company closely follows the demand of Tier1 and actively transforms new energy three electric shell products. After transforming from small products to medium and large products, the value of single vehicle is expected to increase from Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) yuan to about 3000 yuan; 2) In terms of production capacity, the company will successively put into operation Liuzhou, Cicheng and Mexico projects this year and next, with a total land area of 280 mu, which is expected to increase by about 75% compared with the existing Ningbo headquarters, and another 330 mu of Anhui Hanshan project as a reserve. It is expected that the ultimate output capacity in 2022 is expected to be more than 6 billion yuan. 3) The company launched the lean digital factory strategy in 2016 and built the first 5g digital factory in Ningbo in 2019, with stable management and operation capacity in the first echelon. At the same time, the new semi-solid die casting process is arranged, and the product line is expected to be further extended in the future.
Due to the short-term pressure caused by the industrial disturbance, the elasticity of future performance repair can be expected: since the second half of 2021, the profitability of the company has been under pressure due to the influence of aluminum price, exchange rate, sea freight and other factors. At present, the company has established a linkage adjustment mechanism between raw material and product price with customers, and the marginal impact of cost is weakened. It is optimistic about the performance elasticity after the repair of industrial disturbance factors.
Profit forecast and Valuation: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 472 / 642 / 825 million respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 23.5 / 17.3 / 13.5 times respectively. The average p / E ratio of comparable companies in the same industry in 2022 will be 33.4 times. Considering that the company is currently in the stage of capacity climbing and large-scale new energy business, the target market value of the company in 2022 is RMB 14.18 billion, corresponding to pe3.0 billion 0x, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the continuous downturn of macro economy leads to sluggish industry demand, the risk that the epidemic control is less than expected, the risk of raw material price fluctuation, and the risk of exchange rate and sea freight fluctuation.
