Key investment points
Under the impact of the epidemic, the manufacturing boom is low, and the investment side remains resilient
PMI closed at 47.4% in April, down 2.1pct from the previous month. Among them, the production index was 44.4%, down 5.1pct from the previous month, and the new order index was 42.6%, down 6.2pct from the previous month, reflecting that the epidemic had a great impact on both ends of manufacturing demand and supply.
There is a great correlation between industrial performance and industrial regional distribution. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, with Shanghai as the core, is the core of the downward trend. From January to April, the added value of industries above designated size was - 2.9% year-on-year, lower than 5.0% from January to March. The added value of the manufacturing industry in April was - 4.6% year-on-year, lower than the cumulative year-on-year + 6.2% from January to March, mainly because Shanghai, as an important city of the national automobile and semiconductor industry, had a great impact on the manufacturing industry.
From January to April, the fixed asset investment in manufacturing industry was + 12.2% year-on-year, of which + 6.4% year-on-year in April. Although it was slightly lower than + 12.0% in March, it still showed obvious tenacity. We judged that it was mainly related to the policy dividend of "tax rebate". From January to April, the investment growth rate of high-tech manufacturing industry still led the manufacturing industry, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.9%.
The manufacturing industry fell to the bottom in April, but a marginal change for the better can now be observed. On the one hand, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has been gradually controllable; On the other hand, the logistics situation has also begun to improve, and the delivery and raw material procurement of manufacturing enterprises will be improved. We believe that the timely control of the epidemic is the key to the recovery of the manufacturing industry. The short-term performance of 2022q2 general automation related companies still fluctuates, but the downstream rigid demand always exists. In the follow-up, with the gradual convergence of the epidemic, the prosperity of the sector is expected to rise significantly.
Industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : the demand for new energy and other emerging downstream is strong. Under the influence of the epidemic, the peak season of Q2 may move back. From January to April, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output was 125000 units, a year-on-year increase of - 1.4%; Among them, the output of 32500 units in April was - 9.4% year-on-year and - 26.6% month on month, with a large decline affected by the epidemic. In terms of downstream areas, emerging industries such as lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and semiconductors still maintain rapid growth, while 3C and general industries have weak demand due to sluggish consumption and rising commodity prices. From the perspective of product structure, according to mirdata statistics, collaboration, SCARA and big six axis Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) grew rapidly, mainly due to the increased application in the field of lithium new energy, small six axis Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) increased slightly, while delta Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) was mostly used in the field of consumption, with a slight decline compared with the same period. From the perspective of competition pattern, under the influence of the epidemic, Chinese brands have great advantages over foreign capital in terms of delivery time. At present, the delivery time of foreign capital is 8-10 months, the conventional delivery time of Chinese manufacturers is 1 month and that of heavy-duty models is 2 months, which brings opportunities for domestic substitution. In the short term, the epidemic situation has a great impact on the production and sales of Q2 industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry. In previous years, Q2 is usually the peak sales season. We believe that driven by the downstream demand, the peak season of the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry in 2022 is expected to be put behind, and the industry will recover after the epidemic situation subsides.
The machine tool industry declined slightly, and the order growth of metal forming machine tools was prominent
From the output data, the output of metal cutting machine tools from January to April was 180000 units, with a year-on-year increase of - 5.2%, of which 50000 units were produced in April, with a year-on-year increase of - 19% and a month on month increase of - 17%; From January to March, the output of metal forming machine tools was 54000, with a year-on-year increase of - 1.8%, including 24000 in March, with a year-on-year increase of - 4%. The main reason is the impact of the epidemic, and the concentration of enterprises in the machine tool industry in Beijing, Tianjin, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the northeast and other serious epidemic areas. Difficulties such as shutdown and poor logistics have generally had a great impact on the operation of industry enterprises. At the same time, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the international industrial chain and supply chain has also begun to appear.
Demand also showed a downward trend as a whole, but the growth rate of orders for metal forming machine tools was prominent. According to the statistics of machine tool industry association, the new orders of metal processing machine tools in 2022q1 were - 1.5% year-on-year, and the orders on hand were + 7% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative number of new orders for metal cutting machine tools was - 14.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative number of orders on hand was - 6.6% year-on-year. The new orders of metal forming machine tools increased by + 33.5% year-on-year, and the orders on hand increased by + 42.5% year-on-year.
In terms of import and export, according to customs data, the total import volume of machine tool industry from January to march was 3.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of - 2.3%; Total exports amounted to US $4.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 19.6%. Imports fell slightly and exports continued to grow significantly. As the core parts of machine tools, cutting tools fully benefit from import substitution. At present, the orders of major enterprises are still relatively full, and the production scheduling cycle is about 1-2 months (the cutting tools are consumables, and the normal production scheduling cycle is 1 month).
Investment suggestions: industrial automation recommendations Dongguan Yiheda Automation Co.Ltd(301029) , Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) , Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ; Recommended tools Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) , Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) ; The machine tool industry recommends Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) , and it is suggested to pay attention to Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) .
Risk warning: downstream fixed asset investment is less than expected; Industry cycle fluctuation; The impact of the epidemic continues.
