Event description:
On May 18, the European Commission announced an energy plan called “repowereu” to rapidly promote the transformation of green energy. Mainly under the influence of the Russian Ukrainian war, the European region hopes to rapidly reduce Russia’s dependence on fossil energy and seek to establish an independent and safe energy system.
Event comments:
Invest 210 billion euros to increase the proportion of renewable energy. The plan proposes to increase the overall target of renewable energy in 2030 in the EU “fit55” policy portfolio from 40% to 45%. Among them, the target installed capacity of PV will be 320gw in 2025 and 600gw in 2030. From now to 2027, the total investment of the plan is 210 billion euros to gradually get rid of the dependence on Russian energy imports, of which 86 billion euros are used for the construction of renewable energy, 27 billion euros for hydrogen energy equipment, 37 billion euros for biomethane production, and others for power grid energy efficiency improvement.
The newly installed photovoltaic capacity in Europe this year exceeded expectations. According to iea-pvps data, by 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic in Europe was 178.7gw, and 26.8gw was newly installed in 2021. In order to achieve the new goal, the average annual newly installed capacity in Europe from 2022 to 2030 needs to reach 46.8gw. According to PV InfoLink data, the export of Chinese components in 2022q1 was 37.2gw, with a year-on-year increase of 112%, of which the import of Chinese products in Europe reached 16.7gw, with a year-on-year increase of 145%. It is expected that the new installed capacity in Europe this year is expected to reach 50-55gw, with a growth rate of more than 100%.
After the price of Q4 silicon falls, China’s demand will be stimulated. In the context of the outbreak of demand in Europe, the price of silicon remains high. According to the data of silicon industry branch, the average transaction price of silicon material re input this week was 261100 yuan / ton, which remained unchanged. At the end of this month, polysilicon enterprises will successively start signing long orders in June. It is estimated that the total supply is about 73000 tons (including output of 66000 tons + import of 7000 tons). The output includes the increment of production expansion such as Xinte, Tongwei and silicon dioxide, and the import includes the release of Malaysian OCI maintenance and resumption of production; The demand is also expected to be about 73000 tons, and the month on month increment is mainly the capacity release of Gaojing and Shuangliang. Considering the higher than expected demand in Europe and the production of silicon materials in China, the price of silicon materials is expected to enter the downward channel in Q4, and China’s installed demand is expected to be stimulated.
Investment suggestion: this year, the global PV installed capacity is expected to exceed the expectation to reach 240260gw, with a growth rate of more than 50%. Pay attention to the shortage links of consumables, auxiliary materials, equipment and photovoltaic main industry chain. With a focus on the following: ‘s Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) .
Risk warning: the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected; Industrial chain price fluctuation risk.
