Industry introduction: in a narrow sense, coal mining machine mainly refers to “three machines and one set” in comprehensive mining equipment, namely roadheader, shearer, scraper conveyor and hydraulic support. Fully mechanized mining equipment is the most valuable sector among coal mining machines, accounting for about 70%. In fully mechanized mining equipment, the value of hydraulic support accounts for the highest, accounting for about 45%. Roadheader, shearer and scraper conveyor account for 12%, 13% and 10% respectively.
Industry opportunities:
Medium term: the coal price experienced a sharp fluctuation in 2021, reaching a peak of 2500 yuan / ton in October, and the price difference between peak and valley reached 4-5 times. Although the current price of thermal coal decreased under a series of supply guarantee policies, it was still at a high level of 940 yuan / ton as of March 22. Referring to the current international energy price environment, reservoir parameters and other forward-looking indicators, we believe that there are obvious investment opportunities in the coal machinery industry in 22 years. Under the influence of price and supply-demand relationship, the fixed asset investment in the coal industry is expected to usher in another rising cycle since 2011. At the same time, according to the service life of coal machine, we infer that the industry may usher in a new round of replacement rigid demand.
Long term: according to policy guidelines, large coal mines and coal mines with serious disasters will basically realize intellectualization by 2025; According to the coal industry association, large coal mines with an annual output of more than 1.2 million tons accounted for about 85% of the country at the end of 21, but the penetration rate of intelligent working face is very low. In the direction of coal mine intellectualization, we think there is considerable market space.
Industry operation: the coal machinery industry has performed well in many operations. Firstly, the overall profit quality is high. The net cash ratio of the industry in 2021 is 1.42, and the net cash ratio has always been greater than one since 2017; Secondly, a number of Companies in the sector have maintained excellent dividend ratio, and the dividend ratio of Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) in 2021 is as high as 3.51% respectively.
Risk warning: economic policy risk; Risks of market downturn and intensified competition; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Shutdown risk, etc.
